2025 Alisea Hurricane Season (Hurr.Alex): Difference between revisions
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==Seasonal forecasts== | ==Seasonal forecasts== | ||
{| class="toccolours" style="float:right; margin-left:1em; text-align:right; clear: right;" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3" | {| class="toccolours" style="float:right; margin-left:1em; text-align:right; clear: right;" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3" | ||
|+ style="color: black; text-align: center;" | '''Predictions for | |+ style="color: black; text-align: center;" | '''Predictions for 2025 Alisea hurricane season''' | ||
|- style="background:#ccf | |- style="background:#ccf | ||
| align="center" |'''Source''' | | align="center" |'''Source''' | ||
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| align="center" |'''<span style="font-size:80%;">Major<br />hurricanes</span>''' | | align="center" |'''<span style="font-size:80%;">Major<br />hurricanes</span>''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
|align="center" colspan="2"|''Average <span style="font-size: 80%;">(1991–2020)</span>'' || 14.4 || 7.2 || 3.2 | |align="center" colspan="2"|''Average <span style="font-size: 80%;">(1991–2020)</span>'' || 14.4 || 7.2 || 3.2 || | ||
|- | |- | ||
|align="center" colspan="2"|''Record high activity'' | |align="center" colspan="2"|''Record high activity'' | ||
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|7-8 | |7-8 | ||
|1-2 | |1-2 | ||
|- | |||
| align="left" |SK | |||
| align="left" |May 9, 2025 | |||
|17 | |||
|9 | |||
|4 | |||
|- | |||
| align="left" |MV | |||
| align="left" |May 10, 2025 | |||
|16 | |||
|10 | |||
|4 | |||
|- | |||
| align="left" |LL | |||
| align="left" |May 10, 2025 | |||
|14-17 | |||
|5-7 | |||
|2-4 | |||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Actual activity'''<br /> | | '''Actual activity'''<br /> | ||
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|} | |} | ||
Prior to the start of the 2025 Alisea hurricane season, several forecasting agencies issued predictions for tropical cyclone activity in the region. These forecasts projected the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale). The 30-year average from 1991 to 2020 for the basin is 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes. | |||
The North Alisean Hurricane Center (NAHC) released three forecasts. The initial outlook on April 5 projected a slightly below-average season, with 13 to 16 named storms, 4 to 6 hurricanes, and 2 to 3 major hurricanes. This was followed by updates on April 28 and May 9, both maintaining the named storm range at 14 to 19. The May 9 forecast adjusted the expected hurricanes to 7 to 8 and major hurricanes to 1 to 2. | |||
Additional forecasts were issued by SK, MV, and the LL. On May 9, SK forecast 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. MV, on May 10, predicted 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. LL also released its outlook on May 10, forecasting 14 to 17 named storms, 5 to 7 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. | |||
{{Clear}} | |||
== Outlooks == | |||
[[File:2025 Alisean Tropical Outlook.png|660px]] | |||
<pre> | |||
National Alerian Hurricane Center | |||
Special Alisean Tropical Outlook | |||
06:24 PM CST 10 May 2025 | |||
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: | |||
1. A tropical Wave that has Just Entered the Basin is showing model Support | |||
Regularly scheduled Tropical | |||
Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2025, and Special | |||
Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the | |||
remainder of the off-season. | |||
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. | |||
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...60 percent. | |||
</pre> | |||
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== Systems == | |||
=== Tropical Storm Abigail === | === Tropical Storm Abigail === | ||
{{Infobox Hurricane System|1-min winds=45|basin=atl|duration=January 25-January 27, 2025|pressure=1002|track=Abigail 2025 path.png|image=Abigail 2025-01-26-0600Z.png}} | {{Infobox Hurricane System|1-min winds=45|basin=atl|duration=January 25-January 27, 2025|pressure=1002|track=Abigail 2025 path.png|image=Abigail 2025-01-26-0600Z.png|scale-type=SSHWS}} | ||
A tropical wave Forms South of die Berge des Landes on January 24, 2025, and moved Northwest across the Alisea Ocean. By 18:00 UTC on January 25, the system organized sufficiently to be classified as a subtropical storm South of die Berge des Landes and the National Alerian Hurricane Center (NAHC), receiving the name Abigail. Initially exhibiting subtropical characteristics, the storm transitioned into a fully tropical system by 12:00 UTC on January 26 as it moved closer to the Western coast of die Berge des Landes. | A tropical wave Forms South of die Berge des Landes on January 24, 2025, and moved Northwest across the Alisea Ocean. By 18:00 UTC on January 25, the system organized sufficiently to be classified as a subtropical storm South of die Berge des Landes and the National Alerian Hurricane Center (NAHC), receiving the name Abigail. Initially exhibiting subtropical characteristics, the storm transitioned into a fully tropical system by 12:00 UTC on January 26 as it moved closer to the Western coast of die Berge des Landes. | ||
Latest revision as of 19:26, 10 May 2025
 2025 Alisea Season summary map | |
| Seasonal boundaries | |
|---|---|
| First system formed | Jan 25, 2025 |
| Strongest storm | |
| Name | Abigail |
| • Maximum winds | 45 mph (72 km/h) (1 minute sustained) |
| • Lowest pressure | 1002 mbar |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Total depressions | 1 |
| Total storms | 1 |
| Hurricanes | 0 |
| Major hurricanes (Cat. 3-5) |
0 |
| Total fatalities | 1 |
| Total damage | Minimal |
| Related articles | |
| • {{{articles}}} | |
|
| |
| Atlantic hurricane seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 | |
The 2025 Alisea hurricane season is a current event in the annual tropical cyclone season in the northern hemisphere. The season officially begins on May 14, 2025, and will end on November 30, 2025. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Alisea basin and are adopted by convention. However, as illustrated by Tropical Storm Abigail, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year. This season started exceptionally early, nearly five months before the official start, with Tropical Storm Abigail forming Near die Berge des Landes (Country) in mid-January.
Seasonal forecasts
| Source | Date | Named storm |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes | |||
| Average (1991–2020) | 14.4 | 7.2 | 3.2 | ||||
| Record high activity | 30 | 14 | 7 | ||||
| Record low activity | 2 | 1† | 0† | ||||
| NAHC | Apr 5, 2025 | 13-16 | 4-6 | 2-3 | |||
| NAHC | Apr 28, 2025 | 14-19 | 4-6 | 1-3 | |||
| NAHC | May 9, 2025 | 14-19 | 7-8 | 1-2 | |||
| SK | May 9, 2025 | 17 | 9 | 4 | |||
| MV | May 10, 2025 | 16 | 10 | 4 | |||
| LL | May 10, 2025 | 14-17 | 5-7 | 2-4 | |||
| Actual activity |
1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Prior to the start of the 2025 Alisea hurricane season, several forecasting agencies issued predictions for tropical cyclone activity in the region. These forecasts projected the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale). The 30-year average from 1991 to 2020 for the basin is 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.
The North Alisean Hurricane Center (NAHC) released three forecasts. The initial outlook on April 5 projected a slightly below-average season, with 13 to 16 named storms, 4 to 6 hurricanes, and 2 to 3 major hurricanes. This was followed by updates on April 28 and May 9, both maintaining the named storm range at 14 to 19. The May 9 forecast adjusted the expected hurricanes to 7 to 8 and major hurricanes to 1 to 2.
Additional forecasts were issued by SK, MV, and the LL. On May 9, SK forecast 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. MV, on May 10, predicted 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. LL also released its outlook on May 10, forecasting 14 to 17 named storms, 5 to 7 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes.
Outlooks
National Alerian Hurricane Center Special Alisean Tropical Outlook 06:24 PM CST 10 May 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. A tropical Wave that has Just Entered the Basin is showing model Support Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2025, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...60 percent.
Seasonal timeline
Systems
Tropical Storm Abigail
| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | January 25-January 27, 2025 |
| Peak intensity | 45 mph (72 km/h) (1-min); 1002 mbar (hPa) |
A tropical wave Forms South of die Berge des Landes on January 24, 2025, and moved Northwest across the Alisea Ocean. By 18:00 UTC on January 25, the system organized sufficiently to be classified as a subtropical storm South of die Berge des Landes and the National Alerian Hurricane Center (NAHC), receiving the name Abigail. Initially exhibiting subtropical characteristics, the storm transitioned into a fully tropical system by 12:00 UTC on January 26 as it moved closer to the Western coast of die Berge des Landes.
At its peak, Tropical Storm Abigail reached maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa). The system maintained tropical storm strength for a relatively short period before undergoing extratropical transition by 12:00 UTC on January 27. The resulting extratropical cyclone persisted over the Gulf of New Britian and dissipated by 18:00 UTC on January 30.
Despite its brief lifespan and moderate intensity, Abigail Caused Little to No Damage and 1 Death.
Storm names
The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the Alisea in 2025. This is the same list used in the 2019 season, with the exception of Inga, which replaced Irma .
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