2019 Ardonia arrocane season

2019 Ardonia arrocane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formed	May 17, 2019
Last system dissipated	Season ongoing
Strongest storm
Name	Arlene (Strongest/most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded)
• Maximum winds	180 mph (290 km/h) (1 minute sustained)
• Lowest pressure	899 mbar (hPa; 26.55 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions	4
Total storms	3
Arrocanes	2
Major arrocanes (Cat. 3-5)	1
Total fatalities	1,402 total
Total damage	$174 billion (2019 AC)
Related articles
Arrocane Arlene Arrocane Camille
Ardonia arrocane seasons 2019, 2020

The 2019 Ardonia arrocane season is the ongoing annual period in which tropical cyclones—known regionally as arrocanes—form in the Ardonian Ocean and adjacent waters. The season officially began on May 15 and will end on October 31, dates which conventionally mark the period when arrocanes are most likely to develop across the region. The season is monitored by the National Arrocane Center (NAC) in Ataraxia, with local coordination provided by regional National Weather Service (NWS) offices across the continent.

So far, the season has featured the formation of three named storms: Arrocane Arlene, a Category 5 system that became the strongest and costliest arrocane in Ardonian history; Tropical Storm Beryl, a brief but record-breaking system that remained at sea; and most recently, Arrocane Camille, a low-end Category 2 storm that made landfall in Felden and became the fourth costliest storm on record despite not reaching major intensity.

Arlene caused catastrophic impacts across Cydonia and nearby regions, breaking over a dozen basin-wide records and leaving behind over 1,300 fatalities and $158 billion in damages. Beryl, while staying offshore, achieved wind and pressure levels that placed it among the top ten strongest and most intense tropical storms in the basin’s history. Camille became the most intense Category 2 arrocane on record, peaking at 100 mph and 973 mbar before making landfall and producing widespread damage across Felden, resulting in 23 deaths and over $16 billion in losses.

Early-season activity has been unusually intense, with all three storms forming before the start of July. Meteorological agencies have noted that conditions—particularly warm sea surface temperatures and the ongoing positive phase of the Southern Trade Oscillation (STO)—are highly conducive for additional activity heading into the seasonal peak. Many long-range forecasts predict further development through late summer and early fall. The western half of the Ardonian Ocean is seeing above normal temperatures, with them being 3-6° C above average. The eastern Ardonian Ocean is seeing below average temperatures, which is why Tropical Storm Beryl didn't intensify much like the other storms so far.

As the season enters its mid-point, emergency officials continue to urge preparedness across coastal and inland communities. The recent pace and severity of activity have raised concerns among forecasters that 2019 may go on to rival or exceed the historic 1865 season in total impact. As of June 7, it definitely rivals 1865 already.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions for 2019 Ardonia arrocane season

Source	Date	Named storm	Arrocanes	Major arrocanes
Average (1865)		13	5	3
Record high activity		13	5	3
Record low activity		13	5	3
NAC	March 31, 2019	16-20	8-11	3-6
VW	May 16, 2019	17	10	5
T1X	May 16, 2019	18	12	6
NAHC	May 16, 2019	18-22	9-12	1-4
EX	May 16, 2019	24	9	4
NF	May 17, 2019	17-21	6-11	2-4
ECT	May 17, 2019	20	10	4
HDC	May 17, 2019	17	9	4
HA	May 17, 2019	18	9	4
NAC	May 19, 2019	21-24	13-17	5-8
VOLT	May 20, 2019	18	9	3
LA	May 21, 2019	14	7	3
NAC	June 2, 2019	24-29	14-17	7-10
Actual activity		3	2	1

Prior to the official start of the 2019 Arrocane season, multiple meteorological agencies across Ardonia issued forecasts anticipating a highly active year. The National Arrocane Center (NAC) released its first outlook on March 31, calling for 16 to 20 named storms, 8 to 11 arrocanes, and 3 to 6 major arrocanes. A revised outlook issued on May 19 significantly raised those numbers to 21 to 24 named storms, 13 to 17 arrocanes, and 5 to 8 major systems.

Forecasts from other meteorological organizations varied, but nearly all signaled an above-average or near-record season. Voltage/Jordinium (VOLT) and Viewer (VW) projected 18 and 17 named storms respectively, while T1xfed (T1X) predicted up to 12 full arrocanes and 6 majors. The North Alisean Hurricane Center (NAHC) issued one of the highest early forecasts, predicting 18 to 22 named storms and 9 to 12 arrocanes.

Several other forecasting agencies released their predictions in mid-May. Exile (EX) projected 24 named storms and 9 arrocanes, while Nevaeh (NF) anticipated 17 to 21 storms and 6 to 11 arrocanes, including up to four major systems. ECThunderstorms (ECT) and Hurricane Dave (HDC) each forecast 20 and 17 storms respectively, with 9 to 10 reaching arrocane status. HA Animations (HA) predicted 19 named storms and 10 arrocanes, highlighting the possibility of four or more major systems.

The surge in outlooks was attributed to persistently high sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Ardonia and the ongoing positive phase of the Southern Trade Oscillation (STO), both of which are historically linked to hyperactive cyclone seasons. The NAC and several other agencies specifically warned of the potential for multiple Category 4 and 5 systems.

On June 2, 2019, the NAC released a third and more aggressive outlook, calling for 24 to 29 named storms, 14 to 17 arrocanes, and 7 to 10 major arrocanes—the most extreme forecast ever issued by the agency. The updated projection cited a concerning trend in long-range models, which pointed to a possible surge in storm development beginning in mid-June and extending into late July. According to the NAC, there is a heightened probability for multiple systems to reach major status in rapid succession.

As of early June, three named storms have formed: Arrocane Arlene, a catastrophic Category 5 system; Tropical Storm Beryl, a non-impactful but record-breaking storm over open water; and Arrocane Camille, a powerful Category 2 system that became the most intense storm at that classification and the fourth costliest arrocane on record. The season's early activity and the evolving forecasts have led NWS offices across Ardonia to issue elevated readiness bulletins, urging coastal populations to prepare for what may be the most destructive arrocane season on record.

LIVE outlook

Seasonal timeline

For a chronological guide, see Timeline of 2019 Ardonia arrocane season.

Systems

Arrocane Arlene

Main article: Arrocane Arlene

Category 5 arrocane (AAWS)
Duration	May 17 – May 30
Peak intensity	180 mph (290 km/h) (1-min); 899 mbar (hPa)

Arrocane Arlene was the first named storm of the season and the most powerful arrocane ever recorded in the Ardonia basin. Forming on May 17 over the central Gulf of Ardonia, Arlene underwent explosive intensification, reaching Category 5 strength just four days later with peak sustained winds of 180 mph (290 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 899 mbar, both new basin records.

Arlene became the earliest Category 5 arrocane on record, and the first to make landfall at that intensity. On May 22, it made its first landfall in Po’Hatu, Cydonia with sustained winds of 175 mph and a pressure of 908 mbar, making it the most intense landfalling storm in Ardonian history. After briefly weakening, Arlene struck Meridian on May 23 at Category 4 strength (155 mph, 931 mbar), and made its final landfall in Port Kazu on May 25 as a Category 3 system (115 mph, 976 mbar).

Following its third landfall, Arlene stalled over Port Kazu for over 24 hours, unleashing catastrophic flooding and storm surge. It eventually drifted eastward, crossing into the Eastern Ardonian Ocean near Blade Island and transitioning to an extratropical cyclone before dissipating just northeast of the island on May 30.

Arlene broke a total of 15 records, including highest storm surge (50.75 ft), most rainfall from an arrocane (250.59 in), highest confirmed wave height (99.3 ft), and smallest observed eye (4.4 mi). It maintained Category 5 strength for 30 hours and underwent the fastest intensification on record, with a 24-hour increase of 70 mph in wind speed and a pressure drop of 69 mbar.

Arlene caused catastrophic damage across southern Ardonia, particularly in Po’Hatu, Meridian, Port Kazu, and coastal regions of Phaethon and Blade Island. It resulted in 1,379 confirmed deaths, over 15,000 injuries, and $158 billion in damages, making it the costliest and deadliest arrocane in Ardonian history.

Tropical Storm Beryl

Tropical storm (AAWS)
Duration	May 23 – May 29
Peak intensity	65 mph (105 km/h) (1-min); 989 mbar (hPa)

Tropical Storm Beryl was the second named storm of the season, forming from a low-pressure system over the southeastern Ardonian Ocean on early on May 23. The system gradually organized and reached tropical storm strength by May 25, remaining entirely over open waters throughout its lifespan. Beryl peaked with sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 989 mbar on the early morning of May 26 before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on May 27. It dissipated completely by May 28 at 2300 Ardonian time and by 0000 on May 29 in terms of Zulu time.

Although Beryl caused no damage or fatalities, it broke multiple historical records dating back to the Great Arrocane Year of 1865. It became the second strongest tropical storm on record for the basin by windspeed, surpassing all previous non-hurricane systems except Tropical Storm Ten of 1865 (70 mph). Beryl also entered the top 10 most intense arrocanes by pressure, ranking just behind Tropical Storm Eleven of 1865 (988 mbar) until June 3-4, when Arrocane Camille would knock Beryl off the top 10. according to the NAC/NWS. Despite its limited impact, Beryl’s meteorological significance earned it a place in some of the basin’s historical records.

The Ardonia Meteorological Organization (AMO) has listed the name Beryl as a 9% likelihood of retirement due to the historical records it broke. However, while it made a historical intensity in the basin, it wasn’t an impactful storm which will hinder its retirement likelihood. This could change later on, but it will remain unlikely. Due to the recent loss of it's 10th place in the most intense arrocanes list, it will likely be decreased.

Arrocane Camille

Main article: Arrocane Camille

Category 2 arrocane (AAWS)
Duration	June 1 – June 7
Peak intensity	100 mph (160 km/h) (1-min); 973 mbar (hPa)

Arrocane Camille was the third named storm and second arrocane of the season. It developed in the northeastern Ardonian Ocean on June 1 and steadily strengthened as it moved west-northwestward toward the continent. Camille peaked as a low-end Category 2 arrocane with sustained winds of 100 mph (161 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 973 mbar. This made it the sixth-strongest arrocane by windspeed and the fifth-most intense by pressure on record in the Ardonia basin—just behind Category 2 Arrocane Eight (1865) and narrowly surpassing it by one millibar.

The storm made landfall in western Felden on June 6 as a Category 1 arrocane, bringing widespread rainfall, strong winds, and moderate storm surge. Areas affected included the Kawaiin Islands, Riverstead, Basalt Coast, Fort Zuka, and further inland through Ferndale, Mahoa Docks, and Felora. Notable impacts were also reported in Mount Tempus, Niika’s Treefort, Hamburville, and Thralkeld. Flooding and wind damage were extensive across Felden’s coastal and mountainous zones.

According to the final report from NAC/NWS Ferndale, Camille caused 23 confirmed fatalities, 52 injuries, and approximately $16 billion in damages—making it the second costliest storm in Ardonian history, only behind the earlier Arrocane Arlene. Camille weakened rapidly over land and dissipated over northern Felden on June 7 at 0600 UTC.

Tropical Depression Four

Tropical depression (AAWS)
Duration	June 10 – Present
Peak intensity	35 mph (56 km/h) (1-min); 1002 mbar (hPa)

Storm names

The following names have been designated for the 2019 Ardonia arrocane season:

Arlene Beryl Camille Dennis (unused) Erika (unused) Florence (unused) Gert (unused)

Harvey (unused) Irene (unused) Juan (unused) Katrina (unused) Laura (unused) Milton (unused) Nate (unused)

Opal (unused) Patricia (unused) Quinn (unused) Rita (unused) Sandy (unused) Tyler (unused) Uri (unused)

Victor (unused) Wilma (unused) Xander (unused) Yoko (unused) Zachary (unused)

Season effects

Ardonia arrocane wind scale
TD	TS	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5

2019 Ardonia arrocane season statistics

Storm name	Dates active	Storm category at peak intensity	Max 1-min wind mph (km/h)	Min. press. (mbar)	Areas affected	Damage (AC)	Deaths	Ref(s).
Arlene	May 17–30	Category 5 arrocane	180 (290)	899	Cydonia, K'arthen, Blade Island	$158 billion	1,379
Beryl	May 23–29	Tropical storm	65 (105)	989	None	None	None
Camille	June 1–7	Category 2 arrocane	100 (161)	973	Mount Tempus, Felden, Niika's Treefort, Hamburville, Thralkeld	$16 billion	23
Season aggregates
3 systems	May 17 - Ongoing		180 (290)	899		$174 billion	1,402