Jump to content

2019 Ardonia arrocane season: Difference between revisions

From Shark's Hypothetical Weather
← Older edit
VisualWikitext
No edit summary
No edit summary
Tags: Mobile edit Mobile web edit Visual edit
 
(25 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
{{Infobox Arrocane Season|last system dissipated=Season ongoing|first system formed=May 17, 2019|total fatalities=1,379 total|total damage=$158 billion (2019 AC)|five seasons='''2019''', ''2020''|articles=[[Arrocane Arlene]]</br>[[Arrocane Camille]]|strongest-storm=[[Arrocane Arlene|Arlene]]|maximum winds={{convert|180|mph|km/h|abbr=on}}<br />''(1 minute sustained)''|lowest pressure=899 mbar (hPa; 26.55 inHg)|total dp=3|total storms=3|total arrocanes=1|total marrocanes=1|record-storm=Strongest/most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded|image caption=Season summary map|image location=2019_Ardonia_arrocane_season_summary.png}}
{{Infobox Arrocane Season|last system dissipated=Season ongoing|first system formed=May 17, 2019|total fatalities=1,385 total|total damage=$160 billion (2019 AC)|five seasons='''2019''', ''2020''|articles=[[Arrocane Arlene]]</br>[[Arrocane Camille]]|strongest-storm=[[Arrocane Arlene|Arlene]]|maximum winds={{convert|180|mph|km/h|abbr=on}}<br />''(1 minute sustained)''|lowest pressure=899 mbar (hPa; 26.55 inHg)|total dp=3|total storms=3|total arrocanes=2|total marrocanes=1|record-storm=Strongest/most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded|image caption=Season summary map|image location=2019_Ardonia_arrocane_season_summary.png}}


The '''2019 Ardonia arrocane season''' is the ongoing annual period in which tropical cyclones—known regionally as '''arrocanes'''—form in the '''Ardonian Ocean''' and adjacent waters. The season officially began on May 15 and will end on October 31, dates which conventionally delimit the period each year when arrocanes are most likely to develop across the region. The season is monitored by the '''National Arrocane Center (NAC)''' in '''Ataraxia''', with local coordination provided by regional '''National Weather Service (NWS)''' offices across the continent.
The '''2019 Ardonia arrocane season''' is the ongoing annual period in which tropical cyclones—known regionally as '''arrocanes'''—form in the '''Ardonian Ocean''' and adjacent waters. The season officially began on May 15 and will end on October 31, dates which conventionally mark the period when arrocanes are most likely to develop across the region. The season is monitored by the '''National Arrocane Center (NAC)''' in '''Ataraxia''', with local coordination provided by regional '''National Weather Service (NWS)''' offices across the continent.


So far, the season has featured the formation of two named storms: '''Arrocane Arlene''', which reached Category 5 intensity and became the strongest storm ever recorded in the basin, and '''Tropical Storm Beryl''', a short-lived but record-breaking system over the southeastern Ardonian Ocean. Arlene caused significant impacts to multiple regions of Ardonia and broke nearly every single record known, while Beryl remained entirely at sea and caused no reported damage or fatalities.
So far, the season has featured the formation of three named storms: '''Arrocane Arlene''', a Category 5 system that became the strongest and costliest arrocane in Ardonian history; '''Tropical Storm Beryl''', a brief but record-breaking system that remained at sea; and most recently, '''Arrocane Camille''', a low-end Category 2 storm that made landfall in Felden and became the fourth costliest storm on record despite not reaching major intensity.


Early-season activity has been unusually intense, with both storms forming within the first two weeks of the official season. Arlene’s catastrophic impacts have already prompted heightened alertness from regional governments, many of whom have ramped up preparedness campaigns and accelerated emergency planning. In Cydonia, where Arlene made multiple landfalls, meteorological infrastructure is being reassessed following widespread communication failures during the storm.
Arlene caused catastrophic impacts across Cydonia and nearby regions, breaking over a dozen basin-wide records and leaving behind over 1,300 fatalities and 158 billion AC in damages. Beryl, while staying offshore, achieved wind and pressure levels that placed it among the top ten strongest and most intense tropical storms in the basin’s history. Camille became the most intense Category 2 arrocane on record, peaking at 100 mph and 973 mbar before making landfall and producing widespread damage across Felden, resulting in six deaths and over 2.8 billion AC in losses.


Climatologists at the NAC have noted that the early onset of extreme conditions may signal a pattern of sustained activity throughout the season. Elevated sea surface temperatures, persistent atmospheric instability, and the ongoing positive phase of the '''Southern Trade Oscillation (STO)''' have all been identified as contributing factors. These conditions mirror those seen in other historically active seasons, leading many forecasting agencies to revise their outlooks upward.
Early-season activity has been unusually intense, with all three storms forming before the start of July. Meteorological agencies have noted that conditions—particularly warm sea surface temperatures and the ongoing positive phase of the '''Southern Trade Oscillation (STO)'''—are highly conducive for additional activity heading into the seasonal peak. Many long-range forecasts predict further development through late summer and early fall.


Although no new systems have formed in the past several days, meteorologists warn that this quiet period could be short-lived. The climatological peak of the season typically occurs between late July and early September, and multiple long-range models suggest a series of favorable waves emerging from the Equatorial Divide later in the summer. Emergency officials are urging citizens in low-lying coastal areas to remain alert and to not interpret the recent lull as a sign that the season is weakening.
As the season enters its mid-point, emergency officials continue to urge preparedness across coastal and inland communities. The recent pace and severity of activity have raised concerns among forecasters that 2019 may go on to rival or exceed the historic 1865 season in total impact.


==Seasonal forecasts==
==Seasonal forecasts==
Line 118: Line 118:
|
|
|3
|3
|1
|2
|1
|1
|-
|-
|}
|}


Prior to the official start of the 2019 Arrocane season, multiple meteorological agencies across Ardonia issued forecasts anticipating an active year. The '''National Arrocane Center (NAC)''' released its early outlook on March 31, calling for 16 to 20 named storms, 8 to 11 arrocanes, and 3 to 6 major arrocanes. A revised outlook published on May 19 increased those ranges to 21 to 24 named storms, 13 to 17 arrocanes, and 5 to 8 major systems.
Prior to the official start of the 2019 Arrocane season, multiple meteorological agencies across Ardonia issued forecasts anticipating a highly active year. The '''National Arrocane Center (NAC)''' released its first outlook on March 31, calling for 16 to 20 named storms, 8 to 11 arrocanes, and 3 to 6 major arrocanes. A revised outlook issued on May 19 significantly raised those numbers to 21 to 24 named storms, 13 to 17 arrocanes, and 5 to 8 major systems.


Forecasts from other agencies varied in intensity, but a majority anticipated an above-average or near-record season. '''Voltage/Jordinium (VOLT)''' and '''Viewer (VW)''' predicted 18 and 17 named storms respectively, while '''T1xfed (T1X)''' projected as many as 12 full arrocanes and 6 majors. The '''North Alisean Hurricane Center (NAHC)''' issued one of the highest forecasts, predicting 18 to 22 named storms and 9 to 12 arrocanes.  
Forecasts from other meteorological organizations varied, but nearly all signaled an above-average or near-record season. '''Voltage/Jordinium (VOLT)''' and '''Viewer (VW)''' projected 18 and 17 named storms respectively, while '''T1xfed (T1X)''' predicted up to 12 full arrocanes and 6 majors. The '''North Alisean Hurricane Center (NAHC)''' issued one of the highest early forecasts, predicting 18 to 22 named storms and 9 to 12 arrocanes.


Several other regional centers released forecasts in mid-May. '''Exile (EX)''' forecast 24 named storms and 9 arrocanes, while '''Nevaeh (NF)''' predicted 17 to 21 storms and 6 to 11 arrocanes, including up to four major systems. '''ECThunderstorms (ECT)''' called for 20 named storms and 10 arrocanes, and '''Hurricane Dave (HDC)''' projected a similar outlook with 17 storms and 9 arrocanes. Lastly, '''HA Animations (HA)''' predicted 19 named storms and 10 arrocanes, with the potential for 4 major events.
Several other forecasting agencies released their predictions in mid-May. '''Exile (EX)''' projected 24 named storms and 9 arrocanes, while '''Nevaeh (NF)''' anticipated 17 to 21 storms and 6 to 11 arrocanes, including up to four major systems. '''ECThunderstorms (ECT)''' and '''Hurricane Dave (HDC)''' each forecast 20 and 17 storms respectively, with 9 to 10 reaching arrocane status. '''HA Animations (HA)''' predicted 19 named storms and 10 arrocanes, highlighting the possibility of four or more major systems.


The surge in predictions was attributed to anticipated above-normal sea surface temperatures across the '''Gulf of Ardonia''' and an ongoing phase of the Southern Trade Oscillation (STO), which historically correlates with heightened cyclonic activity in the region. Several agencies, including the '''NAC''' and '''HA''', noted the potential for multiple Category 4 and 5 arrocanes.
The surge in outlooks was attributed to persistently high sea surface temperatures across the '''Gulf of Ardonia''' and the ongoing positive phase of the '''Southern Trade Oscillation (STO)''', both of which are historically linked to hyperactive cyclone seasons. The NAC and several other agencies specifically warned of the potential for multiple Category 4 and 5 systems.


As of now, the season has seen the development of only two named storms—'''[[Arrocane Arlene]]''', a Category 5 system still active, and '''Tropical Storm Beryl''', a minimal storm that remained at sea. Though early activity has not matched forecasted expectations, experts caution that the peak of the season typically occurs between July and September.
On June 2, 2019, the NAC released a third and more aggressive outlook, calling for '''24 to 29 named storms''', '''14 to 17 arrocanes''', and '''7 to 10 major arrocanes'''—the most extreme forecast ever issued by the agency. The updated projection cited a concerning trend in long-range models, which pointed to a possible surge in storm development beginning in mid-June and extending into late July. According to the NAC, there is a heightened probability for multiple systems to reach major status in rapid succession.
 
As of early June, three named storms have formed: '''[[Arrocane Arlene]]''', a catastrophic Category 5 system; '''Tropical Storm Beryl''', a non-impactful but record-breaking storm over open water; and '''[[Arrocane Camille]]''', a powerful Category 2 system that became the most intense storm at that classification and the fourth costliest arrocane on record. The season's early activity and the evolving forecasts have led '''NWS offices''' across Ardonia to issue elevated readiness bulletins, urging coastal populations to prepare for what may be the most destructive arrocane season on record.
{{Clear}}
{{Clear}}


Line 173: Line 175:
   from:17/05/2019 till:30/05/2019 color:C5 text:"[[Arrocane Arlene|Arlene (C5)]]"
   from:17/05/2019 till:30/05/2019 color:C5 text:"[[Arrocane Arlene|Arlene (C5)]]"
   from:23/05/2019 till:29/05/2019 color:TS text:"Beryl (TS)"
   from:23/05/2019 till:29/05/2019 color:TS text:"Beryl (TS)"
   from:01/06/2019 till:04/06/2019 color:C2 text:"Camille (C2)"
   from:01/06/2019 till:07/06/2019 color:C2 text:"[[Arrocane Camille|Camille (C2)]]"


   bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas
   bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas
Line 203: Line 205:
|image=Arlene_2300_AT_5212019.png
|image=Arlene_2300_AT_5212019.png
|track=Arlene_Full_Track.png
|track=Arlene_Full_Track.png
}}
|basin=atl}}


Arrocane '''Arlene''' was the first named storm of the season and the most powerful arrocane ever recorded in the Ardonia basin. Forming on May 17 over the central Gulf of Ardonia, Arlene underwent explosive intensification, reaching Category 5 strength just four days later with peak sustained winds of '''180 mph (290 km/h)''' and a minimum central pressure of '''899 mbar''', both new basin records.
Arrocane '''Arlene''' was the first named storm of the season and the most powerful arrocane ever recorded in the Ardonia basin. Forming on May 17 over the central Gulf of Ardonia, Arlene underwent explosive intensification, reaching Category 5 strength just four days later with peak sustained winds of '''180 mph (290 km/h)''' and a minimum central pressure of '''899 mbar''', both new basin records.
Line 221: Line 223:
Tropical Storm '''Beryl''' was the second named storm of the season, forming from a low-pressure system over the '''southeastern Ardonian Ocean''' on early on May 23. The system gradually organized and reached tropical storm strength by May 25, remaining entirely over open waters throughout its lifespan. Beryl peaked with sustained winds of '''65 mph (105 km/h)''' and a minimum central pressure of '''989 mbar''' on the early morning of May 26 before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on May 27. It dissipated completely by May 28 at 2300 Ardonian time and by 0000 on May 29 in terms of Zulu time.
Tropical Storm '''Beryl''' was the second named storm of the season, forming from a low-pressure system over the '''southeastern Ardonian Ocean''' on early on May 23. The system gradually organized and reached tropical storm strength by May 25, remaining entirely over open waters throughout its lifespan. Beryl peaked with sustained winds of '''65 mph (105 km/h)''' and a minimum central pressure of '''989 mbar''' on the early morning of May 26 before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on May 27. It dissipated completely by May 28 at 2300 Ardonian time and by 0000 on May 29 in terms of Zulu time.


Although Beryl caused no damage or fatalities, it broke multiple historical records dating back to the '''Great Arrocane Year of 1865'''. It became the '''second strongest tropical storm''' on record for the basin by windspeed, surpassing all previous non-hurricane systems except Tropical Storm Ten of 1865 (70 mph). Beryl also entered the '''top 10 most intense arrocanes by pressure''', ranking just behind Tropical Storm Eleven of 1865 (988 mbar), according to the '''NAC/NWS'''. Despite its limited impact, Beryl’s meteorological significance earned it a place in the basin’s historical records.
Although Beryl caused no damage or fatalities, it broke multiple historical records dating back to the '''Great Arrocane Year of 1865'''. It became the '''second strongest tropical storm''' on record for the basin by windspeed, surpassing all previous non-hurricane systems except Tropical Storm Ten of 1865 (70 mph). Beryl also entered the '''top 10 most intense arrocanes by pressure''', ranking just behind Tropical Storm Eleven of 1865 (988 mbar) until June 3-4, when [[Arrocane Camille]] would knock Beryl off the top 10. according to the '''NAC/NWS'''. Despite its limited impact, Beryl’s meteorological significance earned it a place in some of the basin’s historical records.


The Ardonia Meteorological Organization (AMO) has listed the name Beryl as a 9% likelihood of retirement due to the historical records it broke. However, while it made a historical intensity in the basin, it wasn’t an impactful storm which will hinder its retirement likelihood. This could change later on, but it will remain unlikely.
The Ardonia Meteorological Organization (AMO) has listed the name Beryl as a 9% likelihood of retirement due to the historical records it broke. However, while it made a historical intensity in the basin, it wasn’t an impactful storm which will hinder its retirement likelihood. This could change later on, but it will remain unlikely. Due to the recent loss of it's 10th place in the most intense arrocanes list, it will likely be decreased.


===Arrocane Camille===
===Arrocane Camille===
{{Infobox Hurricane System|1-min winds=100|scale-type=aaws|pressure=973|duration=June 1 – Ongoing|image=Camille_1100_AT_6042019.png|track=Camille_2300_AT_6042019_Track.png|active=yes|last-update-date=06/05/2025 0000Z|current-intensity=y|current-winds=75|current-pressure=984}}
{{main|Arrocane Camille}}
{{Infobox Hurricane System
| 1-min winds = 100
| scale-type = aaws
| pressure = 973
| duration = June 1 – June 7
| image = Camille_1100_AT_6042019.png
| track = Camille_Full_Track.png
}}
 
'''Arrocane Camille''' was the third named storm and second arrocane of the season. It developed in the northeastern Ardonian Ocean on June 1 and steadily strengthened as it moved west-northwestward toward the continent. Camille peaked as a low-end Category 2 arrocane with sustained winds of '''100 mph (161 km/h)''' and a minimum central pressure of '''973 mbar'''. This made it the '''sixth-strongest arrocane by windspeed''' and the '''fifth-most intense by pressure''' on record in the Ardonia basin—just behind Category 2 '''Arrocane Eight (1865)''' and narrowly surpassing it by one millibar.
 
The storm made landfall in western '''Felden''' on June 6 as a Category 1 arrocane, bringing widespread rainfall, strong winds, and moderate storm surge. Areas affected included the '''Kawaiin Islands''', '''Riverstead''', '''Basalt Coast''', '''Fort Zuka''', and further inland through '''Ferndale''', '''Mahoa Docks''', and '''Felora'''. Notable impacts were also reported in '''Mount Tempus''', '''Niika’s Treefort''', '''Hamburville''', and '''Thralkeld'''. Flooding and wind damage were extensive across Felden’s coastal and mountainous zones.
 
According to the final report from '''NAC/NWS Ferndale''', Camille caused '''6 confirmed fatalities''', '''over 20 injuries''', '''1 person missing''', and approximately '''2.8 billion AC''' in damages—making it the '''fourth costliest storm''' in Ardonian history, behind Category 4 '''Arrocane Seven (1865)'''. Camille weakened rapidly over land and dissipated over northern Felden on '''June 7 at 0600 UTC'''.
{{Clear}}
{{Clear}}


Line 236: Line 252:
*[[Arrocane Arlene|Arlene]]
*[[Arrocane Arlene|Arlene]]
*Beryl
*Beryl
*{{tcname active|Camille}}
*[[Arrocane Camille|Camille]]
*{{tcname unused|Dennis}}
*{{tcname unused|Dennis}}
*{{tcname unused|Erika}}
*{{tcname unused|Erika}}
Line 273: Line 289:
{{TC stats table start3|year=2019|basin=Ardonia arrocane|ardonia=yes}}
{{TC stats table start3|year=2019|basin=Ardonia arrocane|ardonia=yes}}
{{TC stats cyclone AAWS
{{TC stats cyclone AAWS
| cat=ahwscat5
| max-winds=180
  | name=[[Arrocane Arlene|Arlene]]
  | name=[[Arrocane Arlene|Arlene]]
  | dates=May 17–30
  | dates=May 17–30
Line 279: Line 297:
  | damage=$158 billion
  | damage=$158 billion
  | deaths=1,379
  | deaths=1,379
  |cat=ahwscat5|max-winds=180}}
  | refs=
}}
{{TC stats cyclone AAWS
{{TC stats cyclone AAWS
| cat=ahwsstorm
| max-winds=65
  | name=Beryl
  | name=Beryl
  | dates=May 23–29
  | dates=May 23–29
Line 287: Line 308:
  | damage=None
  | damage=None
  | deaths=None
  | deaths=None
  |cat=ahwsstorm|max-winds=65}}
| refs=
}}
{{TC stats cyclone AAWS
  | cat=ahwscat2
| max-winds=100
| name=[[Arrocane Camille|Camille]]
| dates=June 1–7
| min-press=973
| areas=Mount Tempus, Felden, Niika's Treefort, Hamburville, Thralkeld
| damage=$2.8 billion
| deaths=6
| refs=
}}
{{TC stats table end3
{{TC stats table end3
  | num-cyclones=2
  | num-cyclones=3
  | dates=May 17 - Ongoing
  | dates=May 17 - Ongoing
  | max-winds={{ConvertMPHKMHTCStats|180}}
  | max-winds={{ConvertMPHKMHTCStats|180}}
  | min-press=899
  | min-press=899
  | tot-areas=
  | tot-areas=
  | tot-damage=$158 billion
  | tot-damage=$160 billion
  | tot-deaths=1,379
  | tot-deaths=1,385
}}
}}
</center>
</center>
{{Clear}}
{{Clear}}

Latest revision as of 00:30, 7 June 2025

2019 Ardonia arrocane season

Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formed May 17, 2019
Last system dissipated Season ongoing
Strongest storm
Name Arlene
(Strongest/most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded)
 • Maximum winds 180 mph (290 km/h)
(1 minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure 899 mbar (hPa; 26.55 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions 3
Total storms 3
Arrocanes 2
Major arrocanes
(Cat. 3-5) 		1
Total fatalities 1,385 total
Total damage $160 billion (2019 AC)
Related articles
Arrocane Arlene
Arrocane Camille
Ardonia arrocane seasons
2019, 2020

The 2019 Ardonia arrocane season is the ongoing annual period in which tropical cyclones—known regionally as arrocanes—form in the Ardonian Ocean and adjacent waters. The season officially began on May 15 and will end on October 31, dates which conventionally mark the period when arrocanes are most likely to develop across the region. The season is monitored by the National Arrocane Center (NAC) in Ataraxia, with local coordination provided by regional National Weather Service (NWS) offices across the continent.

So far, the season has featured the formation of three named storms: Arrocane Arlene, a Category 5 system that became the strongest and costliest arrocane in Ardonian history; Tropical Storm Beryl, a brief but record-breaking system that remained at sea; and most recently, Arrocane Camille, a low-end Category 2 storm that made landfall in Felden and became the fourth costliest storm on record despite not reaching major intensity.

Arlene caused catastrophic impacts across Cydonia and nearby regions, breaking over a dozen basin-wide records and leaving behind over 1,300 fatalities and 158 billion AC in damages. Beryl, while staying offshore, achieved wind and pressure levels that placed it among the top ten strongest and most intense tropical storms in the basin’s history. Camille became the most intense Category 2 arrocane on record, peaking at 100 mph and 973 mbar before making landfall and producing widespread damage across Felden, resulting in six deaths and over 2.8 billion AC in losses.

Early-season activity has been unusually intense, with all three storms forming before the start of July. Meteorological agencies have noted that conditions—particularly warm sea surface temperatures and the ongoing positive phase of the Southern Trade Oscillation (STO)—are highly conducive for additional activity heading into the seasonal peak. Many long-range forecasts predict further development through late summer and early fall.

As the season enters its mid-point, emergency officials continue to urge preparedness across coastal and inland communities. The recent pace and severity of activity have raised concerns among forecasters that 2019 may go on to rival or exceed the historic 1865 season in total impact.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions for 2019 Ardonia arrocane season
Source Date Named
storm 		Arrocanes Major
arrocanes
Average (1865) 13 5 3
Record high activity 13 5 3
Record low activity 13 5 3
NAC March 31, 2019 16-20 8-11 3-6
VW May 16, 2019 17 10 5
T1X May 16, 2019 18 12 6
NAHC May 16, 2019 18-22 9-12 1-4
EX May 16, 2019 24 9 4
NF May 17, 2019 17-21 6-11 2-4
ECT May 17, 2019 20 10 4
HDC May 17, 2019 17 9 4
HA May 17, 2019 18 9 4
NAC May 19, 2019 21-24 13-17 5-8
VOLT May 20, 2019 18 9 3
LA May 21, 2019 14 7 3
NAC June 2, 2019 24-29 14-17 7-10
Actual activity
 3 2 1

Prior to the official start of the 2019 Arrocane season, multiple meteorological agencies across Ardonia issued forecasts anticipating a highly active year. The National Arrocane Center (NAC) released its first outlook on March 31, calling for 16 to 20 named storms, 8 to 11 arrocanes, and 3 to 6 major arrocanes. A revised outlook issued on May 19 significantly raised those numbers to 21 to 24 named storms, 13 to 17 arrocanes, and 5 to 8 major systems.

Forecasts from other meteorological organizations varied, but nearly all signaled an above-average or near-record season. Voltage/Jordinium (VOLT) and Viewer (VW) projected 18 and 17 named storms respectively, while T1xfed (T1X) predicted up to 12 full arrocanes and 6 majors. The North Alisean Hurricane Center (NAHC) issued one of the highest early forecasts, predicting 18 to 22 named storms and 9 to 12 arrocanes.

Several other forecasting agencies released their predictions in mid-May. Exile (EX) projected 24 named storms and 9 arrocanes, while Nevaeh (NF) anticipated 17 to 21 storms and 6 to 11 arrocanes, including up to four major systems. ECThunderstorms (ECT) and Hurricane Dave (HDC) each forecast 20 and 17 storms respectively, with 9 to 10 reaching arrocane status. HA Animations (HA) predicted 19 named storms and 10 arrocanes, highlighting the possibility of four or more major systems.

The surge in outlooks was attributed to persistently high sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Ardonia and the ongoing positive phase of the Southern Trade Oscillation (STO), both of which are historically linked to hyperactive cyclone seasons. The NAC and several other agencies specifically warned of the potential for multiple Category 4 and 5 systems.

On June 2, 2019, the NAC released a third and more aggressive outlook, calling for 24 to 29 named storms, 14 to 17 arrocanes, and 7 to 10 major arrocanes—the most extreme forecast ever issued by the agency. The updated projection cited a concerning trend in long-range models, which pointed to a possible surge in storm development beginning in mid-June and extending into late July. According to the NAC, there is a heightened probability for multiple systems to reach major status in rapid succession.

As of early June, three named storms have formed: Arrocane Arlene, a catastrophic Category 5 system; Tropical Storm Beryl, a non-impactful but record-breaking storm over open water; and Arrocane Camille, a powerful Category 2 system that became the most intense storm at that classification and the fourth costliest arrocane on record. The season's early activity and the evolving forecasts have led NWS offices across Ardonia to issue elevated readiness bulletins, urging coastal populations to prepare for what may be the most destructive arrocane season on record.

LIVE outlook

Seasonal timeline

For a chronological guide, see Timeline of 2019 Ardonia arrocane season.
Arrocane CamilleArrocane ArleneArdonia arrocane wind scale

Systems

Arrocane Arlene

Main article: Arrocane Arlene
Category 5 arrocane (AAWS)
Duration May 17 – May 30
Peak intensity 180 mph (290 km/h) (1-min);
899 mbar (hPa)

Arrocane Arlene was the first named storm of the season and the most powerful arrocane ever recorded in the Ardonia basin. Forming on May 17 over the central Gulf of Ardonia, Arlene underwent explosive intensification, reaching Category 5 strength just four days later with peak sustained winds of 180 mph (290 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 899 mbar, both new basin records.

Arlene became the earliest Category 5 arrocane on record, and the first to make landfall at that intensity. On May 22, it made its first landfall in Po’Hatu, Cydonia with sustained winds of 175 mph and a pressure of 908 mbar, making it the most intense landfalling storm in Ardonian history. After briefly weakening, Arlene struck Meridian on May 23 at Category 4 strength (155 mph, 931 mbar), and made its final landfall in Port Kazu on May 25 as a Category 3 system (115 mph, 976 mbar).

Following its third landfall, Arlene stalled over Port Kazu for over 24 hours, unleashing catastrophic flooding and storm surge. It eventually drifted eastward, crossing into the Eastern Ardonian Ocean near Blade Island and transitioning to an extratropical cyclone before dissipating just northeast of the island on May 30.

Arlene broke a total of 15 records, including highest storm surge (50.75 ft), most rainfall from an arrocane (250.59 in), highest confirmed wave height (99.3 ft), and smallest observed eye (4.4 mi). It maintained Category 5 strength for 30 hours and underwent the fastest intensification on record, with a 24-hour increase of 70 mph in wind speed and a pressure drop of 69 mbar.

Arlene caused catastrophic damage across southern Ardonia, particularly in Po’Hatu, Meridian, Port Kazu, and coastal regions of Phaethon and Blade Island. It resulted in 1,379 confirmed deaths, over 15,000 injuries, and $159 billion AC in damages, making it the costliest and deadliest arrocane in Ardonian history.

Tropical Storm Beryl

Tropical storm (AAWS)
Duration May 23 – May 29
Peak intensity 65 mph (105 km/h) (1-min);
989 mbar (hPa)

Tropical Storm Beryl was the second named storm of the season, forming from a low-pressure system over the southeastern Ardonian Ocean on early on May 23. The system gradually organized and reached tropical storm strength by May 25, remaining entirely over open waters throughout its lifespan. Beryl peaked with sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 989 mbar on the early morning of May 26 before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on May 27. It dissipated completely by May 28 at 2300 Ardonian time and by 0000 on May 29 in terms of Zulu time.

Although Beryl caused no damage or fatalities, it broke multiple historical records dating back to the Great Arrocane Year of 1865. It became the second strongest tropical storm on record for the basin by windspeed, surpassing all previous non-hurricane systems except Tropical Storm Ten of 1865 (70 mph). Beryl also entered the top 10 most intense arrocanes by pressure, ranking just behind Tropical Storm Eleven of 1865 (988 mbar) until June 3-4, when Arrocane Camille would knock Beryl off the top 10. according to the NAC/NWS. Despite its limited impact, Beryl’s meteorological significance earned it a place in some of the basin’s historical records.

The Ardonia Meteorological Organization (AMO) has listed the name Beryl as a 9% likelihood of retirement due to the historical records it broke. However, while it made a historical intensity in the basin, it wasn’t an impactful storm which will hinder its retirement likelihood. This could change later on, but it will remain unlikely. Due to the recent loss of it's 10th place in the most intense arrocanes list, it will likely be decreased.

Arrocane Camille

Main article: Arrocane Camille
Category 2 arrocane (AAWS)
Duration June 1 – June 7
Peak intensity 100 mph (160 km/h) (1-min);
973 mbar (hPa)

Arrocane Camille was the third named storm and second arrocane of the season. It developed in the northeastern Ardonian Ocean on June 1 and steadily strengthened as it moved west-northwestward toward the continent. Camille peaked as a low-end Category 2 arrocane with sustained winds of 100 mph (161 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 973 mbar. This made it the sixth-strongest arrocane by windspeed and the fifth-most intense by pressure on record in the Ardonia basin—just behind Category 2 Arrocane Eight (1865) and narrowly surpassing it by one millibar.

The storm made landfall in western Felden on June 6 as a Category 1 arrocane, bringing widespread rainfall, strong winds, and moderate storm surge. Areas affected included the Kawaiin Islands, Riverstead, Basalt Coast, Fort Zuka, and further inland through Ferndale, Mahoa Docks, and Felora. Notable impacts were also reported in Mount Tempus, Niika’s Treefort, Hamburville, and Thralkeld. Flooding and wind damage were extensive across Felden’s coastal and mountainous zones.

According to the final report from NAC/NWS Ferndale, Camille caused 6 confirmed fatalities, over 20 injuries, 1 person missing, and approximately 2.8 billion AC in damages—making it the fourth costliest storm in Ardonian history, behind Category 4 Arrocane Seven (1865). Camille weakened rapidly over land and dissipated over northern Felden on June 7 at 0600 UTC.

Storm names

The following names have been designated for the 2019 Ardonia arrocane season:

  • Arlene
  • Beryl
  • Camille
  • Dennis (unused)
  • Erika (unused)
  • Florence (unused)
  • Gert (unused)
  • Harvey (unused)
  • Irene (unused)
  • Juan (unused)
  • Katrina (unused)
  • Laura (unused)
  • Milton (unused)
  • Nate (unused)
  • Opal (unused)
  • Patricia (unused)
  • Quinn (unused)
  • Rita (unused)
  • Sandy (unused)
  • Tyler (unused)
  • Uri (unused)
  • Victor (unused)
  • Wilma (unused)
  • Xander (unused)
  • Yoko (unused)
  • Zachary (unused)

Season effects

Ardonia arrocane wind scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2019 Ardonia arrocane season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(AC) 		Deaths Ref(s).
Arlene May 17–30 Category 5 arrocane 180 (290) 899 Cydonia, K'arthen, Blade Island $158 billion 1,379
Beryl May 23–29 Tropical storm 65 (105) 989 None None None
Camille June 1–7 Category 2 arrocane 100 (161) 973 Mount Tempus, Felden, Niika's Treefort, Hamburville, Thralkeld $2.8 billion 6
Season aggregates
3 systems May 17 - Ongoing   180 (290) 899 $160 billion 1,385  
Retrieved from "http://sharkshypotheticalweather.com/index.php?title=2019_Ardonia_arrocane_season&oldid=1922"