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Tornado outbreak of May 11-12, 2030

From Shark's Hypothetical Weather
Tornado outbreak of May 11-12, 2030

The SPC's MODERATE Risk on May 11
Meteorological history
Duration 14 hours, 12 minutes
Tornado outbreak
Tornadoes 19
Maximum rating EF5 tornado

Highest winds Tornadic - 205 mph (330 km/h) (Moore, Oklahoma EF5 on May 11)
Overall effects
Fatalities 35+
Injuries 315+
Damage ~$2.1 billion (2025 USD)
Areas affected Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Power Outages Unknown

Confirmed tornadoes

Confirmed tornadoes by Enhanced Fujita rating
EFU EF0 EF1 EF2 EF3 EF4 EF5 Total
0 8 4 3 2 1 1 19

Moore, Oklahoma

Moore, Oklahoma

A well-built restaurant that suffered EF5 damage.
Meteorological history
Formed May 11, 2030, 1:21 p.m. CDT (UTC-5:00)
Dissipated May 11, 2030, 2:13 p.m. CDT (UTC-5:00)
Duration 52 minutes
EF5 tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds 205 mph (330 km/h)
Overall effects
Casualties 35+ fatalities, 315+ injuries

The most violent tornado of the outbreak struck Moore, Oklahoma, on the afternoon of May 11, producing catastrophic EF5 damage across the city. It developed southwest of Newcastle at approximately 1:21 p.m. CDT and moved northeast, quickly intensifying into a large wedge tornado as it approached the Oklahoma City metro. The tornado reached a peak width of nearly 1 mile and remained on the ground for 15.1 miles before dissipating at 2:07 p.m. CDT near Lake Stanley Draper. Maximum estimated winds were recorded at 205 mph (330 km/h), with radar indicating a strong debris ball and high-end velocity couplet. The storm’s path closely mirrored those of the devastating EF5 tornadoes that impacted Moore in 1999 and 2013, passing through many of the same neighborhoods and subdivisions. Residential areas in southern and central Moore were particularly hard-hit, with entire blocks flattened and many homes swept completely from their foundations.

More than 2,000 homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed by the tornado. Numerous fatalities occurred in residential areas, particularly near Briarwood Elementary School and the Plaza Towers subdivision. While both schools sustained damage, classes were not in session due to the tornado striking on a Saturday, likely preventing further loss of life. Briarwood Elementary suffered partial roof failure and damage to multiple classrooms, while Plaza Towers Elementary — rebuilt after its 2013 destruction — endured significant roof and facade damage, though its reinforced structure remained standing. The tornado’s EF5 rating was assigned based on the total destruction of a well-engineered, anchor-bolted restaurant in southern Moore, the only damage indicator to exceed EF4 thresholds. Debris from the restaurant was scattered hundreds of yards, and anchoring systems were found ripped or sheared. Vehicles were thrown long distances, and several were wrapped around trees or shredded beyond recognition.

In total, the Moore tornado resulted in at least 35 fatalities and over 315 injuries, making it the deadliest single tornado of the 2030 outbreak and one of the deadliest in Oklahoma history since 2013. Emergency response teams described the scene in Moore as chaotic, with blocked roads, power outages, and overwhelmed communications infrastructure. The tornado knocked out power to tens of thousands of residents, ruptured gas lines, and temporarily disabled cell towers and 911 systems. Search and rescue efforts were hampered by debris piles that exceeded ten feet in some areas. Recovery of victims took days, with final identification of all deceased individuals not completed until nearly three weeks later. The National Weather Service and emergency managers praised the effectiveness of early warnings and weather radios, though the tornado’s speed and strength left little time for many to seek shelter. Estimated damage from the Moore tornado alone exceeded $2.1 billion, placing it among the costliest tornadoes in U.S. history. The event once again reignited discussion about tornado resilience, especially in Moore, which has now been struck by three EF5 tornadoes in just over three decades.

El Reno, Oklahoma

El Reno, Oklahoma

A home suffering low-end EF4 damage near downtown El Reno.
Meteorological history
Formed May 11, 2030, 2:58 p.m. CDT (UTC-5:00)
Dissipated May 11, 2030, 3:41 p.m. CDT (UTC-5:00)
Duration 43 minutes
EF4 tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds 170 mph (270 km/h)
Overall effects
Casualties 8 fatalities, 38 injuries