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Arrocane Earl

From Shark's Hypothetical Weather

Arrocane Earl
Earl at peak intensity after making landfall in the Pearl Islands on June 24
Meteorological history
Formed June 23, 2020
Extratropical June 27, 2020
Dissipated June 28, 2020
Category 1 arrocane
1-minute sustained (AAWS/NWS)
Highest winds 75 mph (120 km/h)
Lowest pressure 989 mbar (hPa); 29.21 inHg
Overall effects
Fatalities 8
Missing 1
Damage $500,000 (2020 USD)
Areas affected
  • Pearl Islands

Part of the 2020 Ardonia arrocane season

Arrocane Earl was a rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone that affected the Pearl Islands and nearby coastal areas in June 2020. The seventh tropical cyclone, fifth named storm, and second arrocane of the 2020 Ardonia arrocane season, Earl reached Category 1 intensity shortly after making its first landfall. Despite its relatively low peak intensity and short duration, the cyclone caused eight deaths and left one person missing. Damage from Earl totaled approximately $500,000 (2020 USD).

Earl developed from a disturbance over the eastern Ardonia Ocean on June 23. Initially weak, the system rapidly organized while moving northwestward toward the Pearl Islands. Earl strengthened considerably during its approach, reaching tropical storm intensity and continuing to intensify before making its first landfall with maximum sustained winds of approximately 70 mph (110 km/h) and a central pressure of 993 mbar (29.32 inHg). Shortly afterward, at 06:00 UTC on June 24, Earl attained its peak intensity as a Category 1 arrocane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 989 mbar (29.21 inHg). Earl subsequently moved generally northwestward and westward, making another landfall before weakening. The cyclone eventually lost its tropical characteristics and became extratropical on June 27, before dissipating the following day.

Although Earl caused comparatively little monetary damage, its effects resulted in several fatalities. The Pearl Islands sustained approximately $150,000 in damage and one death, while other coastal areas accounted for approximately $350,000 in losses and seven fatalities. Earl was also notable for its rapid intensification; its maximum sustained winds increased by 60 mph (95 km/h) during the 24-hour period ending at 06:00 UTC on June 24, when the cyclone reached its peak intensity.

Meteorological history

Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Ardonia arrocane wind scale
Map key
  Tropical depression (≤39 mph, ≤63 km/h)
  Tropical storm (40–74 mph, 64–119 km/h)
  Category 1 (75–94 mph, 120–159 km/h)
  Category 2 (95–114 mph, 160–183 km/h)
  Category 3 (115–129 mph, 184–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–159 mph, 209–256 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥160 mph, ≥257 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

Arrocane Earl originated from an area of disturbed weather over the eastern Ardonia Ocean in late June 2020. The disturbance gradually became better organized while moving northwestward, and by 18:00 UTC on June 23, it had developed into Tropical Depression Seven. At the time of formation, the depression had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h). Environmental conditions were highly favorable for strengthening, and the newly formed cyclone began intensifying rapidly as it approached the Pearl Islands.

During the ensuing hours, Earl strengthened considerably while continuing northwestward. The cyclone attained tropical storm intensity shortly after formation and continued to organize as it approached the islands. Earl's circulation became better defined and deep convection increased around its center as its maximum sustained winds rapidly increased. The storm made its first landfall on June 24 with maximum sustained winds of approximately 70 mph (110 km/h) and a central pressure of 993 mbar (29.32 inHg), placing it just below arrocane intensity at the time it moved ashore.

Earl continued strengthening despite the landfall, and at 06:00 UTC on June 24, it became a Category 1 arrocane and simultaneously reached its peak intensity. Maximum sustained winds reached 75 mph (120 km/h), while the minimum central pressure fell to 989 mbar (29.21 inHg). The increase represented a 60 mph (95 km/h) rise in maximum sustained winds over a 24-hour period, from 15 mph (25 km/h) at 06:00 UTC on June 23 to 75 mph (120 km/h) at 06:00 UTC the following day.

After reaching peak intensity, Earl maintained arrocane strength only briefly as it continued generally northwestward and then westward. The cyclone subsequently made another landfall while moving toward the mainland. Interaction with land caused Earl to weaken, and the cyclone fell below arrocane intensity as it progressed farther inland. Earl continued westward while steadily losing its organized tropical structure.

By June 27, Earl had lost its tropical characteristics and transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. The weakening extratropical system continued moving westward for a short period before its circulation dissipated on June 28.

Preparations and impact

As Earl rapidly strengthened while approaching the Pearl Islands on June 23–24, the cyclone posed an increasing threat to the islands and nearby coastal areas. Preparations were undertaken ahead of the storm's arrival as Earl approached tropical storm strength and continued to intensify. The relatively rapid development of the cyclone provided a limited period between its formation and its first landfall. Earl moved ashore with maximum sustained winds of approximately 70 mph (110 km/h), shortly before strengthening into a Category 1 arrocane.

The Pearl Islands sustained approximately $150,000 (2020 USD) in damage from Earl. One person was killed in the islands, while another person was reported missing during the storm. Despite Earl reaching Category 1 intensity shortly after its first landfall, overall monetary losses in the islands remained comparatively limited.

Additional impacts occurred along coastal areas as Earl continued along its track and subsequently made another landfall. These areas sustained approximately $350,000 in damage, accounting for 70% of the cyclone's total losses. Seven fatalities were attributed to Earl in coastal areas, comprising the majority of the storm's death toll.

Overall, Earl caused approximately $500,000 in damage and eight confirmed fatalities, with one additional person reported missing. Although the cyclone caused relatively little monetary damage, its eight fatalities made its human impact considerably more significant than its damage total alone would suggest.

Aftermath

Following Earl's passage, recovery efforts were focused on the Pearl Islands and other coastal areas affected by the cyclone. Overall damage was comparatively limited, totaling approximately $500,000 (2020 USD), although the storm's human toll was considerably greater relative to its monetary losses. Eight people were confirmed dead and one remained missing following the cyclone.

Unlike several other destructive storms during the 2020 Ardonia arrocane season, the name Earl was not retired following the season and remained on the Ardonia tropical cyclone naming lists.

Records

Earl was notable for the rapid rate at which it strengthened shortly after development. During the 24-hour period from 06:00 UTC on June 23 to 06:00 UTC on June 24, Earl's maximum sustained winds increased from 15 mph (25 km/h) to 75 mph (120 km/h), an increase of 60 mph (95 km/h). The period culminated with Earl attaining Category 1 intensity and its peak strength shortly after its first landfall.

At the time, Earl's 60 mph (95 km/h) increase ranked among the greatest 24-hour increases in maximum sustained winds recorded for an Ardonia tropical cyclone. Several cyclones later in the 2020 season also underwent substantial periods of intensification, altering Earl's position in the historical rankings. Earl currently holds a tie for the seventh-greatest 24-hour wind increase on record, alongside Florence and Gilbert.

Despite Earl's rapid strengthening, its peak intensity of 75 mph (120 km/h) and 989 mbar (29.21 inHg) did not place the cyclone among the strongest or most intense Ardonia arrocanes on record.

See also