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Tornado outbreak of May 22–24, 2035

From Shark's Hypothetical Weather

Tornado outbreak of May 22–24, 2035
Map of tornado warnings and confirmed tornadoes during the outbreak
Meteorological history
Duration May 22–24, 2035
Tornado outbreak
Tornadoes 42
Max. rating EF5 tornado
Duration 1 day, 12 hours, 42 minutes

Highest winds Tornadic – >200 mph (320 km/h) (Lake Crystal, Minnesota EF5 on May 23)
Overall effects
Fatalities 48
Injuries 478
Damage $1.16 billion (2035 USD)
Areas affected Midwestern United States, particularly Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and South Dakota

Part of the tornado outbreaks of 2035

The Tornado outbreak of May 22–24, 2035 was a significant three-day tornado outbreak that affected portions of the midwestern United States, particularly Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Numerous supercells developed as a powerful spring storm system interacted with warm, moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico, producing 42 tornadoes, including several strong to violent tornadoes. The outbreak caused widespread damage to homes, businesses, farms, hospitals, and infrastructure while leaving hundreds of thousands of customers without electrical service across the region. Overall, the outbreak resulted in 48 fatalities, 478 injuries, and approximately $1.16 billion (2035 USD) in damage.

The outbreak began on May 22, when several supercells developed across central Nebraska. The most significant tornado that day was a long-track EF4 tornado that struck Chapman, Central City, and Clarks, causing catastrophic damage throughout Central City, including severe destruction at Merrick Medical Center, where structural failure and the loss of critical hospital systems contributed to multiple fatalities. On May 23, atmospheric conditions became even more favorable for long-lived tornadic supercells across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, producing the most intense phase of the outbreak.

The most destructive tornado of the outbreak was a violent EF5 tornado that struck Lake Crystal, Minnesota, during the evening of May 23. Reaching estimated peak winds of >200 mph (320 km/h), it became the first EF5 tornado in Minnesota since the 1992 Chandler–Lake Wilson tornado and the most recent EF5 rated tornado in the United States since the 2035 Purcell, Oklahoma tornado which occurred a few weeks prior. Other notable tornadoes included the long-track EF4 tornado that struck Chapman, Central City, and Clarks, Nebraska, and another EF4 tornado that tracked from Faribault through Northfield, Minnesota, before dissipating near Castle Rock. Although the outbreak weakened after midnight on May 23, several additional tornadoes occurred during the early morning hours of May 24 before the parent storm system finally weakened and moved eastward across the Upper Midwest.

Meteorological synopsis

Background

During the third week of May 2035, a broad upper-level trough progressed eastward across the western United States while a strengthening subtropical ridge remained anchored over the southeastern states. This pattern allowed persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico to transport rich low-level moisture northward into the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Surface dew points climbed into the upper 60s to lower 70s °F (20–22 °C) across much of Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, while afternoon temperatures rose into the lower 80s °F (27–29 °C), creating an increasingly unstable air mass.

On May 22, a strengthening surface cyclone developed over the northern Plains and gradually deepened while moving toward the eastern Dakotas. A warm front extended eastward across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin, while a trailing cold front stretched southwestward through Nebraska and Kansas. As strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow overspread the central Plains during the afternoon, scattered supercells developed across central Nebraska. Although widespread cloud cover and modest convective inhibition initially limited storm coverage, sufficient instability and increasing vertical wind shear supported several tornadic supercells. These storms reinforced the northward transport of moisture and helped establish an increasingly volatile environment ahead of the approaching storm system.

By the morning of May 23, forecast models indicated that a powerful mid-level jet streak exceeding 90 mph (145 km/h) would overspread Minnesota during the afternoon and evening while the parent cyclone continued to deepen over the northern Plains. Combined with strengthening low-level winds, rapidly increasing wind shear, and rich Gulf moisture, forecasters expressed concern for a significant severe weather outbreak capable of producing numerous long-lived supercells, destructive hail, widespread damaging winds, and several strong to violent tornadoes.

May 22

SPC Day 1 Categorical Outlook on May 22.

During the morning of May 22, the Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa as a strengthening low-pressure system lifted northeastward across the northern Plains. Forecasters cited increasing instability, strengthening deep-layer wind shear, and favorable low-level hodographs as supportive of organized supercells capable of producing tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging straight-line winds.

By early afternoon, temperatures had climbed into the lower 80s °F (27–29 °C) while dew points remained in the upper 60s °F (around 20 °C). Mixed-layer CAPE values increased to between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear exceeded 50–60 kt (58–69 mph; 93–111 km/h). Initial thunderstorms developed over central Nebraska shortly after 2:30 p.m. CDT and quickly became supercellular.

Several tornadoes developed through the late afternoon and evening, including a long-lived supercell that produced the violent Chapman–Central City–Clarks EF4 tornado. The tornado reached its peak intensity while crossing Central City, causing catastrophic damage to residential neighborhoods, Merrick Medical Center, and surrounding commercial districts before continuing eastward toward Clarks. Additional tornadoes affected Fort Kearny, Oconto, Park, Columbus, and several smaller communities before convection gradually weakened later that evening.

May 23

SPC Day 1 Categorical Outlook on May 23.

Following the tornadic activity across central Nebraska on May 22, the warm front lifted northward through central Minnesota as strong solar heating rapidly destabilized the atmosphere across southern portions of the state. By early afternoon, mixed-layer CAPE values had increased to between 3,000 and 4,500 J/kg beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, while effective bulk shear exceeded 60 kt (69 mph; 111 km/h). A strengthening south-southeasterly low-level jet produced large, looping hodographs and exceptionally favorable conditions for long-lived, rotating supercells. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center issued a Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms across much of southern Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin.

By mid-afternoon, isolated thunderstorms began developing along the advancing cold front over eastern South Dakota before rapidly becoming supercellular as they crossed into Minnesota. Additional storms formed ahead of the front within the open warm sector, where minimal convective interference allowed individual supercells to remain discrete for several hours. These storms tracked generally east-northeastward across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin, repeatedly producing tornadoes, destructive hail, and widespread damaging winds.

Environmental conditions continued to improve through the evening as the low-level jet intensified after sunset. Storm-relative helicity increased substantially while low cloud bases and abundant low-level moisture allowed tornadoes to remain intense well into the nighttime hours. Several long-track tornadoes occurred during this period, including the Lake Crystal EF5, the first officially rated EF5 tornado in Minnesota since 1992, and the Northfield EF4, which tracked from Faribault through Northfield before dissipating near Castle Rock. Three additional EF3 tornadoes struck communities in Minnesota and western Wisconsin, making May 23 the most significant day of the three-day outbreak.

After midnight, storms gradually evolved into a large mesoscale convective system as the strongest instability shifted eastward into Wisconsin. While the threat for violent tornadoes diminished, several supercells remained embedded within the broader convective complex and continued producing tornadoes into the early morning hours of May 24 across northern Wisconsin.

May 24

During the early morning hours of May 24, the parent storm system continued moving eastward across the Upper Midwest while gradually weakening. Although widespread instability had diminished considerably, sufficient low-level moisture and lingering vertical wind shear supported a few isolated supercells across northern Wisconsin. These storms generally moved northeastward at around 35 mph and produced mostly weak tornadoes.

The strongest tornado of the day was an EF2 tornado that struck Spooner, Wisconsin, causing significant damage to homes, businesses, and trees while resulting in two fatalities and numerous injuries. Several additional EF0 and EF1 tornadoes occurred near Bashaw, Springbrook, Hayward, Tony, Solon Springs, Port Arthur, and St. Marys. Most of these tornadoes remained short-lived and caused localized damage.

By shortly after 4:00 a.m. CDT, the final tornado of the outbreak dissipated as instability continued to weaken and the remaining supercells transitioned into ordinary thunderstorms. The severe weather threat shifted farther east later that morning, bringing the three-day tornado outbreak to an end after producing 42 confirmed tornadoes across Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

Confirmed tornadoes

Confirmed tornadoes by Enhanced Fujita rating
EFU EF0 EF1 EF2 EF3 EF4 EF5 Total
0 18 11 7 3 2 1 42

Chapman–Central City–Clarks, Nebraska

Chapman–Central City–Clarks, Nebraska
Low-end EF4 damage to Merrick Medical Center in Central City
Meteorological history
Formed May 22, 2035, 6:37 p.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Dissipated May 22, 2035, 8:05 p.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Duration 1 hour, 28 minutes
EF4 tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds 170 mph (270 km/h)
Overall effects
Fatalities 14
Injuries 171
Areas affected Merrick County in Nebraska, particularly the cities of Chapman and Central City

During the evening of May 22, a long-lived supercell produced a tornado southwest of Chapman at 6:37 p.m. CDT, which rapidly intensified as it tracked northeast across central Nebraska. The tornado first caused considerable damage near Chapman before strengthening as it crossed rural portions of Merrick County. Numerous farmsteads were heavily damaged or destroyed, irrigation systems were overturned, thousands of trees were snapped or uprooted, and hundreds of power poles were blown down as the tornado steadily widened.

The tornado reached its maximum intensity while crossing Central City, where it attained estimated peak winds of 170 mph (270 km/h) and a maximum width of approximately 0.75 miles (1.2 km). Entire residential blocks sustained catastrophic damage, with numerous well-built homes completely destroyed and several swept from their foundations. Merrick Medical Center suffered low-end EF4 damage after large portions of the structure collapsed. The tornado destroyed the hospital's primary electrical service and emergency backup generators, resulting in a complete loss of power throughout the facility. Despite evacuation efforts by hospital staff, multiple critically ill patients dependent on life-support equipment died during or shortly after the tornado, contributing to one of the deadliest single incidents of the outbreak. Extensive damage also occurred to schools, businesses, and municipal infrastructure throughout Central City.

After leaving Central City, the tornado gradually weakened while continuing northeast toward Clarks, producing additional damage to homes, outbuildings, and agricultural property before dissipating at 8:05 p.m. CDT after remaining on the ground for 1 hour and 28 minutes. The tornado traveled approximately 36.7 miles (59.1 km) and was officially rated EF4, making it the strongest tornado of May 22 and the most significant tornado to affect Nebraska during the three-day outbreak. Overall, the tornado killed 14 people, injured 171 others, and caused approximately $335 million (2035 USD) in damage before the severe weather threat shifted northeast into the Upper Midwest ahead of the far more widespread outbreak on May 23.

Minneiska, Minnesota/Buffalo City, Wisconsin

Minneiska, Minnesota/Buffalo City, Wisconsin
EF3 damage to a well-built home in Buffalo City
Meteorological history
Formed May 23, 2035, 8:48 p.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Dissipated May 23, 2035, 9:11 p.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Duration 23 minutes
EF3 tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds 150 mph (240 km/h)
Overall effects
Fatalities 1
Injuries 9
Areas affected Winona and Wabasha counties in Minnesota, and Buffalo County in Wisconsin, particularly the city of Buffalo City

The first significant tornado of the evening was an EF3 tornado that touched down west-southwest of Minneiska, Minnesota, at 8:48 p.m. CDT. Moving northeast at approximately 28–30 mph, the tornado remained over mostly rural terrain as it crossed the Mississippi River into Buffalo County, Wisconsin. During the early stages of its life, it damaged numerous farmsteads, destroyed several outbuildings, snapped hundreds of trees, and overturned irrigation equipment. Cornfields and wooded areas along the river valley exhibited extensive convergent damage, while multiple power poles were snapped, resulting in scattered power outages. As the tornado approached Buffalo City, it rapidly intensified, reaching its peak strength.

The most severe damage occurred on the southwestern outskirts of Buffalo City, where several homes sustained major structural damage. One well-built residence lost nearly all of its exterior walls, with only portions of several interior rooms remaining standing, consistent with high-end EF3 damage. Additional homes suffered roof and wall failure, vehicles were tossed or rolled, and numerous hardwood trees were snapped or stripped of large limbs. Emergency crews began search-and-rescue operations immediately after the tornado passed. The tornado weakened as it continued northeast of the city and dissipated at 9:11 p.m. CDT after remaining on the ground for 23 minutes. In total, one person was killed and nine others were injured.

River Falls–Roberts, Wisconsin

River Falls–Roberts, Wisconsin
Low-end EF3 damage to a home in River Falls
Meteorological history
Formed May 23, 2035, 9:22 p.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Dissipated May 23, 2035, 9:56 p.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Duration 34 minutes
EF3 tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds 145 mph (233 km/h)
Overall effects
Fatalities 2
Injuries 15
Areas affected Pierce and St. Croix counties in Wisconsin, particularly the city of River Falls

A second EF3 tornado developed southwest of River Falls at 9:22 p.m. CDT as a mature supercell tracked northeast across western Wisconsin. The tornado rapidly intensified after touching down, carving a 16.4-mile (26.4 km) path through predominantly rural portions of Pierce and St. Croix counties. Numerous farms sustained extensive damage as barns, machine sheds, and silos were destroyed or heavily damaged. Large swaths of hardwood forest were flattened, with countless trees snapped or uprooted. As the tornado approached River Falls, it reached its peak intensity, producing widespread structural damage on the southwestern edge of the city before continuing toward Roberts.

The most significant damage occurred in residential neighborhoods on the outskirts of River Falls, where several homes sustained severe structural damage. One residence lost much of its roof and exterior walls, while neighboring homes suffered collapsed garages, roof failures, and broken windows from wind-driven debris, resulting in a low-end EF3 damage rating. Numerous vehicles were damaged by falling trees and flying debris, and utility poles were snapped, leaving thousands without electricity. The tornado gradually weakened as it moved northeast toward Roberts, where it caused additional damage to homes, businesses, and agricultural buildings before dissipating at 9:56 p.m. CDT after remaining on the ground for 34 minutes. The tornado claimed two lives and injured 15 others, making it one of the deadliest tornadoes in western Wisconsin during the outbreak.

Lake Crystal, Minnesota

Lake Crystal, Minnesota
EF5 damage to a well-built home in Lake Crystal
Meteorological history
Formed May 23, 2035, 10:06 p.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Dissipated May 23, 2035, 10:24 p.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Duration 18 minutes
EF5 tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds >200 mph (320 km/h)
Overall effects
Fatalities 18
Injuries 143
Areas affected Blue Earth County in Minnesota, particularly the city of Lake Crystal

A violent EF5 tornado touched down southwest of Lake Crystal at 10:06 p.m. CDT as a mature cyclic supercell rapidly intensified over southern Minnesota. Initially causing EF1 to EF3 damage through open farmland, the tornado quickly grew into a large wedge as it tracked north-northeastward toward the community. The tornado eventually reached a maximum damage-path width of approximately 1.2 miles (1.9 km), with radar indicating a rapidly strengthening debris signature as it approached Lake Crystal after dark.

Immediately south of Lake Crystal, the tornado reached what post-event analysis later determined was likely its maximum intensity. Extreme agricultural scouring occurred within the core of the circulation, including an approximately 336-foot-long (102 m) excavation in which soil was removed to depths of 1–2 feet (0.3–0.6 m) in places. The tornado remained extremely violent as it entered Lake Crystal, producing catastrophic EF5 damage across western portions of the city. Well-built homes were completely swept from their foundations, trees were debarked and denuded, vehicles were severely mangled and thrown, and structural debris was extensively wind-rowed.

Damage survey teams initially assigned the tornado a high-end EF4 rating before an extended engineering review of the most heavily damaged residences resulted in an upgrade to EF5, with official winds estimated at >200 mph (320 km/h). Subsequent post-event analysis by the National Severe Storms Laboratory concluded that the tornado had likely been even stronger immediately south of the city. Analysis of the extreme ground scouring, damage progression, radar observations, and downstream EF5 damage resulted in an unofficial estimate of winds exceeding 225 mph (360 km/h) within the rural peak-intensity corridor.

After devastating portions of Lake Crystal, the tornado gradually weakened as it curved north before dissipating at 10:24 p.m. CDT. It remained on the ground for 18 minutes and traveled 8.46 miles (13.62 km), killing 18 people and injuring 143 others.

Mankato–Cleveland, Minnesota

Mankato–Cleveland, Minnesota
Low-end EF3 damage to a poorly-built home in Cleveland
Meteorological history
Formed May 23, 2035, 10:51 p.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Dissipated May 23, 2035, 11:13 p.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Duration 22 minutes
EF3 tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds 140 mph (230 km/h)
Overall effects
Fatalities 0
Injuries 4
Areas affected Blue Earth and Le Sueur counties in Minnesota, particularly the city of Cleveland

Shortly after the Lake Crystal EF5 tornado dissipated, the same supercell produced an EF3 tornado southwest of Mankato at 10:51 p.m. CDT. The tornado tracked north-northeast for 10.4 miles (16.7 km) through rural Blue Earth and Le Sueur counties, passing east of Mankato before approaching the community of Cleveland. Remaining over open farmland for much of its life, the tornado destroyed numerous barns, machine sheds, grain bins, and irrigation systems while snapping hundreds of trees and downing power lines. Several farmsteads sustained significant damage as the tornado steadily intensified on its approach to Cleveland.

The tornado reached its greatest intensity on the southern edge of Cleveland, where multiple homes suffered severe structural damage. One poorly constructed residence lost much of its roof and exterior walls, while nearby homes sustained roof failure, collapsed garages, and shattered windows from wind-driven debris, supporting a low-end EF3 rating. Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted throughout the town, and several businesses sustained roof damage before the tornado weakened northeast of Cleveland. The tornado dissipated at 11:13 p.m. CDT after remaining on the ground for 22 minutes. Although no fatalities occurred, four people were injured, and damage was estimated in the tens of millions of dollars, making it one of several significant tornadoes to affect southern Minnesota during the late evening hours of May 23.

Faribault–Dundas–Northfield–Waterford–Castle Rock, Minnesota

Faribault–Dundas–Northfield–Waterford–Castle Rock, Minnesota
Low-end EF4 damage to a poorly-built home in Northfield
Meteorological history
Formed May 23, 2035, 11:55 p.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Dissipated May 24, 2035, 12:35 a.m. CDT (UTC–05:00)
Duration 40 minutes
EF4 tornado
on the Enhanced Fujita scale
Highest winds 175 mph (282 km/h)
Overall effects
Fatalities 9
Injuries 96
Areas affected Rice and Dakota counties in Minnesota, particularly the city of Northfield

A large and destructive EF4 tornado touched down southwest of Faribault at 11:55 p.m. CDT, becoming the final violent tornado of the evening. Produced by a long-lived supercell that had tracked across southern Minnesota, the tornado moved north-northeast for 19.5 miles (31.4 km) through Rice and Dakota counties while maintaining a broad, well-organized circulation. Numerous farmsteads were heavily damaged or destroyed shortly after touchdown, with barns, grain bins, and machine sheds swept away as the tornado rapidly intensified. Large areas of hardwood forest were flattened, utility poles were snapped, and widespread power outages occurred before the tornado entered more populated areas.

The tornado caused extensive damage as it moved through Dundas, Northfield, Waterford, and Castle Rock, producing its most intense damage within and just north of Northfield. Entire neighborhoods sustained severe structural damage, with numerous homes losing roofs and exterior walls or being completely destroyed. Several poorly constructed homes were swept from their foundations, while well-built residences suffered near-total destruction consistent with a low-end EF4 rating. Numerous commercial buildings sustained major roof and wall failure, hundreds of trees were snapped or stripped of limbs, and vehicles were thrown or severely damaged by flying debris. Emergency response efforts were complicated by widespread debris blocking roads and the tornado's occurrence shortly before midnight.

The tornado continued northeast through Waterford and Castle Rock, gradually weakening before dissipating at 12:35 a.m. CDT on May 24 after remaining on the ground for 40 minutes. In total, nine people were killed and 96 others were injured, making it the second-deadliest tornado of the outbreak behind the Lake Crystal EF5. The tornado caused catastrophic damage across portions of Rice and Dakota counties and became one of the strongest tornadoes to strike the Northfield area in modern history.

Impact and aftermath

The May 22–24, 2035 tornado outbreak caused widespread destruction across portions of Nebraska, Minnesota, western Wisconsin, eastern South Dakota, and northern Iowa, with the most catastrophic damage occurring on May 23 across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Communities including Chapman, Central City, Lake Crystal, Northfield, River Falls, Buffalo City, and Cleveland sustained severe damage, while dozens of smaller communities experienced varying degrees of destruction. Thousands of homes, businesses, farms, agricultural buildings, hospitals, and other critical infrastructure were damaged or destroyed, and countless trees and power poles were snapped or uprooted. At the height of the outbreak, well over 100,000 customers lost electrical service as utility crews struggled to restore power amid extensive damage. Numerous highways and local roads were blocked by debris, downed trees, and overturned vehicles, significantly hampering emergency response efforts throughout the three-day event.

Search-and-rescue operations began immediately after the tornadoes passed, with local fire departments, law enforcement agencies, emergency medical services, state emergency management agencies, and volunteer organizations responding to the hardest-hit communities. Mutual aid was requested from neighboring counties and states as hospitals treated 478 injured residents. Particularly intensive rescue efforts occurred in Central City, Nebraska, following the devastating strike on Merrick Medical Center, and in Lake Crystal, where multiple neighborhoods were destroyed by the outbreak's only EF5 tornado. Damage surveys completed over the following days confirmed 42 tornadoes, including one EF5 tornado, two EF4 tornadoes, three EF3 tornadoes, multiple EF2 tornadoes, and numerous weaker tornadoes, making the outbreak one of the most significant severe weather events to affect the Upper Midwest during the 2030s. The Lake Crystal EF5 became the first EF5 tornado in Minnesota since the 1992 Chandler–Lake Wilson tornado, while the Chapman–Central City–Clarks EF4 ranked among the strongest tornadoes to strike central Nebraska in decades.

Although the most intense phase of the outbreak ended after midnight on May 23, the parent storm system continued eastward across the Upper Midwest, producing additional tornadoes in northern Wisconsin during the early morning hours of May 24 before weakening over the western Great Lakes. Recovery and cleanup operations continued for months as federal, state, and local agencies assisted affected communities. The outbreak ultimately resulted in 42 tornadoes, 48 fatalities, 478 injuries, and approximately $1.16 billion (2035 USD) in damage, making it one of the costliest and deadliest tornado outbreaks of the decade.

See also