2019 Ardonia arrocane season
| 2019 Ardonia arrocane season | |
 | |
| Seasonal boundaries | |
|---|---|
| First system formed | May 19, 2019 |
| Last system dissipated | October 1, 2019 |
| Strongest storm | |
| Name | Milton |
| • Maximum winds | 200 mph (325 km/h) (1-minute sustained) |
| • Lowest pressure | 865 mbar (hPa; 25.54 inHg) |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Total depressions | 26 (record high) |
| Total storms | 25 (record high) |
| Arrocanes | 16 (record high) |
| Major arrocanes (Cat. 3+) |
9 (record high) |
| ACE | 216.7825 (record high) |
| Total fatalities | 2,216 total |
| Total damage | $440 billion (2019 USD) |
| Related articles | |
Ardonia arrocane seasons 1865, 2019, 2020 | |
The 2019 Ardonia arrocane season was an exceptionally active and destructive tropical cyclone season in Ardonia, and the most active and costliest Ardonia arrocane season on record. The season produced a record 26 tropical depressions, of which a record 25 became named storms, 16 intensified into arrocanes, and nine became major arrocanes, all seasonal records. Three systems—Arlene, Katrina, and Milton—reached Category 5 intensity, also a seasonal record. The season accumulated an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 216.7825, more than twice the 93.585 recorded during the 1865 Ardonia arrocane season and the highest seasonal total on record. Collectively, the season's tropical cyclones caused approximately $440 billion (2019 USD) in damage and 2,216 fatalities. It was the deadliest Ardonia arrocane season on record at the time, though its fatality total was surpassed by the 2020 Ardonia arrocane season the following year.
Tropical cyclone activity began on May 19 with the formation of Arlene, following the development of its precursor several days earlier. Arlene rapidly intensified and became the season's first arrocane, major arrocane, and Category 5 arrocane. At peak intensity, Arlene attained maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (285 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 899 mbar (hPa; 26.55 inHg), the second-lowest pressure recorded in the Gulf of Ardonia. The cyclone caused catastrophic damage across portions of Cydonia, particularly Meridian, and became the deadliest and costliest storm of the season. Arlene caused 1,379 fatalities, left 563 people missing, and produced $158 billion in damage, making it the costliest tropical cyclone on record.
Activity continued during June, including the development of Camille and Florence. Florence intensified into a Category 4 arrocane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and caused $45 billion in damage and 51 fatalities. Tropical activity increased substantially during July, when numerous cyclones developed in close succession. Katrina became the season's second Category 5 arrocane, reaching maximum sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 901 mbar (hPa; 26.61 inHg). Katrina caused $59 billion in damage and 207 fatalities. Milton subsequently became the third Category 5 arrocane of the season and the strongest tropical cyclone of the year. It attained maximum sustained winds of 200 mph (325 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 865 mbar (hPa; 25.54 inHg), while causing $75 billion in damage and 437 fatalities. Rita later reached Category 4 intensity and caused an additional $37.55 billion in damage.
Activity remained substantial into August, when Victor, Wilma, and Xander each became major arrocanes. Wilma was the strongest of the three, reaching Category 4 intensity with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h), and caused $29.5 billion in damage and 44 fatalities. Activity decreased considerably thereafter, with Yoko becoming the only named storm to form during September. Tropical Depression Twenty-Six developed late in the month and became the final tropical cyclone of the season, dissipating on October 1. Following the season, the Ardonia Meteorological Organization (AMO) retired eight names—Arlene, Camille, Florence, Katrina, Milton, Rita, Victor, and Wilma—from future use.
Seasonal forecasts
| Source | Date | Named storms |
Arrocanes | Major arrocanes |
| Previous documented season (1865) | 13 | 5 | 3 | |
| AMO | December 14, 2018 | 15–19 | 8–11 | 3–5 |
| ASU | April 5, 2019 | 17 | 9 | 4 |
| CTWP | April 18, 2019 | 18 | 10 | 4 |
| AMO | May 9, 2019 | 17–21 | 9–12 | 4–6 |
| ASU | June 7, 2019 | 20 | 12 | 6 |
| CTWP | July 5, 2019 | 22 | 14 | 7 |
| AMO | July 12, 2019 | 22–26 | 13–17 | 7–10 |
| ASU | August 2, 2019 | 24 | 15 | 8 |
| AMO | August 8, 2019 | 24–27 | 14–17 | 8–10 |
| Actual activity | 25 | 16 | 9 | |
Before and during each arrocane season, forecasts of tropical cyclone activity are issued by the Ardonia Meteorological Organization (AMO), scientific organizations, and research groups. These forecasts estimate the number of named storms, arrocanes, and major arrocanes expected to develop during the season. A major arrocane is defined as a tropical cyclone attaining Category 3 intensity or higher, corresponding to maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 km/h).
Historical climatology was limited prior to the 2019 season. The 1865 Ardonia arrocane season was the only previously documented Ardonia arrocane season, during which 13 named storms, five arrocanes, and three major arrocanes were recorded. Consequently, these totals served as the primary historical benchmark for forecasts of activity in 2019. Seasonal outlooks did not predict the number of tropical cyclones that would make landfall or the locations individual storms would affect.
Pre-season forecasts
On December 14, 2018, the Ardonia Meteorological Organization (AMO) issued its first outlook for the 2019 season, forecasting 15–19 named storms, 8–11 arrocanes, and 3–5 major arrocanes. Even the lower end of the forecast called for more named storms and arrocanes than had been documented during the 1865 season, and the organization anticipated a considerably more active season.
Ardonia State University (ASU) issued its first forecast on April 5, predicting 17 named storms, nine arrocanes, and four major arrocanes. The Cydonia Tropical Weather Project (CTWP) followed on April 18, forecasting 18 named storms, ten arrocanes, and four major arrocanes.
On May 9, the AMO increased its forecast to 17–21 named storms, 9–12 arrocanes, and 4–6 major arrocanes. The organization cited increasingly favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the basin and maintained its expectation of substantially elevated tropical cyclone activity.
Mid-season forecasts
Following the exceptionally active start to the season, forecasts were progressively increased. On June 7, ASU raised its prediction to 20 named storms, 12 arrocanes, and six major arrocanes. By this time, Arlene had already become the first Category 5 arrocane of the season and had demonstrated the potential for exceptionally intense tropical cyclones during the year.
On July 5, CTWP increased its forecast to 22 named storms, 14 arrocanes, and seven major arrocanes. Activity subsequently increased rapidly during July. On July 12, as Katrina and Milton were developing, the AMO substantially increased its seasonal outlook to 22–26 named storms, 13–17 arrocanes, and 7–10 major arrocanes.
ASU issued its final update on August 2, forecasting 24 named storms, 15 arrocanes, and eight major arrocanes. The AMO issued another outlook on August 8, forecasting 24–27 named storms, 14–17 arrocanes, and 8–10 major arrocanes. The season ultimately produced 25 named storms, 16 arrocanes, and nine major arrocanes, placing the final totals within the AMO's final forecast ranges.
Seasonal summary
Systems
Arrocane Arlene
| Very intense arrocane (FML) | |
| Category 5 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | May 19 – May 26 |
| Peak intensity | 155 mph (250 km/h) (10-min); 899 mbar (hPa) |
Tropical Storm Beryl
| Tropical storm (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | May 25 – May 27 |
| Peak intensity | 65 mph (100 km/h) (1-min); 989 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Camille
| Arrocane (FML) | |
| Category 2 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | June 1 – June 5 |
| Peak intensity | 85 mph (140 km/h) (10-min); 962 mbar (hPa) |
Tropical Storm Dennis
| Tropical storm (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | June 10 – June 13 |
| Peak intensity | 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min); 990 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Erika
| Category 1 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | June 12 – June 14 |
| Peak intensity | 80 mph (130 km/h) (1-min); 982 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Florence
| Intense arrocane (FML) | |
| Category 4 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | June 11 – June 18 |
| Peak intensity | 130 mph (215 km/h) (10-min); 933 mbar (hPa) |
Tropical Storm Gert
| Tropical storm (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | June 20 – June 21 |
| Peak intensity | 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min); 994 mbar (hPa) |
Tropical Storm Harvey
| Tropical storm (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | June 24 – July 5 |
| Peak intensity | 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min); 994 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Irene
| Intense arrocane (FML) | |
| Category 3 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | June 30 – July 6 |
| Peak intensity | 105 mph (165 km/h) (10-min); 969 mbar (hPa) |
Tropical Storm Juan
| Tropical storm (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | July 9 – July 10 |
| Peak intensity | 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min); 996 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Katrina
| Very intense arrocane (FML) | |
| Category 5 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | July 11 – July 17 |
| Peak intensity | 150 mph (240 km/h) (10-min); 900 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Laura
| Category 2 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | July 11 – July 16 |
| Peak intensity | 105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min); 978 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Milton
| Very intense arrocane (FML) | |
| Category 5 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | July 12 – July 18 |
| Peak intensity | 180 mph (285 km/h) (10-min); 865 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Nate
| Category 1 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | July 15 – July 17 |
| Peak intensity | 75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min); 987 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Opal
| Category 1 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | July 23 – July 25 |
| Peak intensity | 80 mph (130 km/h) (1-min); 986 mbar (hPa) |
Tropical Storm Patricia
| Tropical storm (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | July 23 – July 25 |
| Peak intensity | 65 mph (100 km/h) (1-min); 992 mbar (hPa) |
Tropical Storm Quinn
| Tropical storm (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | July 23 – July 24 |
| Peak intensity | 40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min); 1007 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Rita
| Intense arrocane (FML) | |
| Category 4 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | July 24 – July 27 |
| Peak intensity | 120 mph (195 km/h) (10-min); 945 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Sandy
| Category 1 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | July 28 – July 30 |
| Peak intensity | 85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min); 988 mbar (hPa) |
Tropical Storm Tyler
| Tropical storm (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | July 29 – July 30 |
| Peak intensity | 45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min); 1000 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Uri
| Category 1 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | July 31 – August 3 |
| Peak intensity | 80 mph (130 km/h) (1-min); 987 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Victor
| Arrocane (FML) | |
| Category 3 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | August 3 – August 8 |
| Peak intensity | 100 mph (155 km/h) (10-min); 960 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Wilma
| Very intense arrocane (FML) | |
| Category 4 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
  | |
| Duration | August 11 – August 14 |
| Peak intensity | 140 mph (220 km/h) (10-min); 931 mbar (hPa) |
Arrocane Xander
| Intense arrocane (FML) | |
| Category 3 arrocane (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | August 17 – August 21 |
| Peak intensity | 110 mph (175 km/h) (10-min); 949 mbar (hPa) |
Tropical Storm Yoko
| Tropical storm (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | September 3 – September 6 |
| Peak intensity | 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min); 996 mbar (hPa) |
Tropical Depression Twenty-Six
| Tropical depression (AAWS) | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Duration | September 29 – October 1 |
| Peak intensity | 35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min); 1008 mbar (hPa) |