Arrocane Victor
 | |
| Meteorological history | |
|---|---|
| Formed | August 3, 2019 |
| Extratropical | August 8, 2019 |
| Dissipated | August 10, 2019 |
| Arrocane | |
| 10-minute sustained (FML) | |
| Highest winds | 100 mph (155 km/h) |
| Lowest pressure | 960 mbar (hPa); 28.35 inHg |
| Category 3 major arrocane | |
| 1-minute sustained (AAWS/NWS) | |
| Highest winds | 120 mph (195 km/h) |
| Lowest pressure | 960 mbar (hPa); 28.35 inHg |
| Overall effects | |
| Fatalities | 28 total |
| Missing | 9 |
| Damage | $19.9 billion (2019 USD) |
| Areas affected | |
Part of the 2019 Ardonia arrocane season | |
Arrocane Victor was a destructive and costly tropical cyclone that affected portions of the Wilderness in early August 2019. The twenty-second tropical cyclone and named storm, fourteenth arrocane, and seventh major arrocane of the 2019 Ardonia arrocane season, Victor reached Category 3 intensity on the Ardonia arrocane wind scale, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (190 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 960 mbar (28 inHg). Victor caused $19.9 billion (2019 USD) in damage and 28 fatalities, while an additional nine people were reported missing. Most of the casualties and economic losses occurred along the coastline near Fort Hacksaw, where Victor made landfall at major arrocane intensity.
Victor formed on August 3 and initially moved generally northward over open waters. The cyclone steadily strengthened as it approached the Wilderness, becoming a major arrocane and eventually reaching its peak intensity of 120 mph (190 km/h) and 960 mbar (hPa; 28.35 inHg) shortly before landfall on August 7. Victor subsequently struck the coastline near Fort Hacksaw with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) and a central pressure of 966 mbar (hPa; 28.53 inHg). The cyclone weakened after moving inland and became extratropical on August 8, before its remnants dissipated on August 10. The FML assessed Victor as having attained peak 10-minute sustained winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 960 mbar (hPa; 28.35 inHg).
Victor caused widespread damage along the affected coastline and in the vicinity of Fort Hacksaw, while additional impacts occurred in Bhengorn. Coastal areas accounted for $18 billion in damage and 27 fatalities, while Fort Hacksaw sustained an additional $1.19 billion in damage and one fatality. Bhengorn sustained approximately $710 million in damage, although no deaths occurred there. Due to the extensive destruction and loss of life caused by the arrocane, the name Victor was retired following the season and replaced with Vance for future use.
Meteorological history
Tropical storm (40–74 mph, 64–119 km/h)
Category 1 (75–94 mph, 120–159 km/h)
Category 2 (95–114 mph, 160–183 km/h)
Category 3 (115–129 mph, 184–208 km/h)
Category 4 (130–159 mph, 209–256 km/h)
Category 5 (≥160 mph, ≥257 km/h)
Unknown
Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression The origins of Victor can be traced to an area of disturbed weather over the open ocean south of the Wilderness in early August. The disturbance gradually became better organized while moving generally northward, developing into a tropical cyclone on August 3. Upon reaching tropical storm intensity, the system was assigned the name Victor. The cyclone continued northward over open waters during the following several days while steadily strengthening.
Victor attained arrocane intensity as its circulation became increasingly organized. Continuing generally northward, the cyclone intensified further while approaching the western coastline of the Wilderness. Victor eventually reached major arrocane intensity as it turned toward the north-northeast. The cyclone's strengthening continued as it approached the coast, with Victor developing a well-defined eye surrounded by a compact area of deep convection.
On August 7, Victor reached its peak intensity as a Category 3 arrocane, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (190 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 960 mbar (hPa; 28.35 inHg). At approximately the same time, the cyclone began curving northeastward toward the coastline near Fort Hacksaw. Victor weakened slightly before making landfall later that day with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) and a central pressure of 966 mbar (hPa; 28.53 inHg), retaining Category 3 intensity at landfall.
After moving inland, Victor weakened rapidly as it continued northeastward through the Wilderness. The cyclone fell below major arrocane intensity and subsequently weakened below arrocane strength as its circulation interacted with the terrain. Victor eventually transitioned into an extratropical cyclone on August 8. Its extratropical remnants continued generally northeastward during the following two days while gradually weakening, before dissipating on August 10.
| Rank | Arrocane | Season | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 Arlene | 2019 | $158 billion |
| 2 | 5 Gilbert | 2020 | $129 billion |
| 3 | TS Otto | 2020 | $117 billion |
| 4 | 5 Milton | 2019 | $75 billion |
| 5 | 4 Katrina | 2019 | $59 billion |
| 6 | 3 Florence | 2019 | $45 billion |
| 7 | 4 Rita | 2019 | $37.6 billion |
| 8 | 4 Wilma | 2019 | $29.5 billion |
| 9 | 3 Bob | 2020 | $21.3 billion |
| 10 | 3 Victor | 2019 | $19.9 billion |
The FML assessed Victor as having reached a peak intensity of 100 mph (160 km/h) based on 10-minute sustained winds, with a minimum central pressure of 960 mbar (hPa; 28.35 inHg).
Preparations
Fort Hacksaw
As Victor strengthened while approaching the Wilderness, preparations were undertaken in and around Fort Hacksaw ahead of the cyclone's expected landfall. The threat increased substantially as Victor attained major arrocane intensity and its projected path brought the center toward the nearby coastline. Residents in exposed coastal areas were advised to seek secure shelter and avoid the shoreline as conditions deteriorated.
Preparations at Fort Hacksaw focused on securing structures and equipment against destructive winds and heavy rainfall. Loose objects and supplies were moved indoors or secured, while exposed entrances and other vulnerable portions of buildings were reinforced where possible. Activities near the coast were curtailed as increasingly rough seas and outer rainbands associated with Victor began affecting the region. Travel was also reduced ahead of landfall due to the expected deterioration of roads and visibility during the storm.
By August 7, Victor had strengthened to Category 3 intensity immediately offshore, substantially increasing the threat of destructive winds along the coast. Final preparations were completed as the cyclone turned northeastward toward land, and residents were urged to remain sheltered through the passage of the strongest winds.
Bhengorn
Preparations were also undertaken in Bhengorn as Victor approached the Wilderness. Although the settlement was outside the immediate landfall area, the cyclone's large circulation presented a threat of strong winds and heavy rainfall as Victor moved inland. Residents secured property and prepared for possible interruptions to transportation and other services.
As Victor approached the coast on August 7, outdoor activities were reduced and residents were advised to remain indoors as weather conditions deteriorated. Preparations primarily focused on wind and rainfall impacts, as Bhengorn was expected to experience less severe conditions than locations closer to Victor's landfall near Fort Hacksaw.
Impact
Arrocane Victor caused extensive damage across portions of the Wilderness after making landfall at Category 3 intensity on August 7. Destructive winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding affected the landfall region, with the greatest destruction occurring along the coastline near Fort Hacksaw. Victor caused an estimated $19.9 billion (2019 USD) in damage and was responsible for 28 fatalities. An additional nine people were reported missing.
Fort Hacksaw
Victor made landfall along the coastline near Fort Hacksaw with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) and a central pressure of 966 mbar (hPa; 28.53 inHg), corresponding to Category 3 intensity on the Ardonia arrocane wind scale. The landfall brought destructive winds and heavy rainfall to the surrounding coastal region, while large waves and coastal flooding contributed to extensive damage near the shoreline.
The coastline surrounding the landfall point sustained the majority of Victor's destruction. Structures were heavily damaged by the combination of wind and water, while trees and other vegetation were damaged or uprooted. Debris and flooding obstructed roads following the storm, hampering access to some of the hardest-hit coastal areas. Damage to transportation and other infrastructure contributed substantially to the overall economic losses.
The broader coastal landfall region sustained approximately $18 billion in damage and accounted for 27 of Victor's 28 confirmed fatalities. Fort Hacksaw itself sustained an additional $1.19 billion in damage. Strong winds damaged structures and other infrastructure in and around the settlement, while heavy rainfall caused additional localized flooding. One person was killed at Fort Hacksaw, bringing the combined death toll across the landfall region and Fort Hacksaw to 28. Several people remained unaccounted for in the immediate aftermath of the arrocane.
Bhengorn
Bhengorn experienced less severe but still significant effects from Victor as the cyclone weakened over the Wilderness. Strong winds affected the area, damaging structures and vegetation, while heavy rainfall produced localized flooding and disrupted transportation.
Damage in Bhengorn was estimated at $710 million. Despite the considerable property and infrastructure damage, no fatalities were reported there. The impacts in Bhengorn accounted for a comparatively small portion of Victor's $19.9 billion overall damage total, with the overwhelming majority of losses concentrated closer to the cyclone's landfall.
Aftermath
In the immediate aftermath of Arrocane Victor, recovery and search efforts were concentrated along the coastline near Fort Hacksaw, where the most extensive destruction and nearly all of the fatalities had occurred. Flooding, fallen vegetation, and debris initially obstructed access to portions of the landfall region, complicating damage assessments and efforts to reach affected communities. Search operations were conducted for people reported missing following the storm, while displaced residents required temporary shelter and other assistance.
Recovery efforts focused on clearing transportation routes, repairing damaged structures and infrastructure, and restoring access throughout the affected coastline. At Fort Hacksaw, repairs were undertaken following the significant wind and rainfall damage caused by Victor. Recovery operations were also conducted in Bhengorn, although damage there was substantially lower than in the primary landfall region.
Victor ultimately caused an estimated $19.9 billion (2019 USD) in damage across the Wilderness. Twenty-eight people were confirmed dead, while nine others were reported missing. Of the confirmed fatalities, 27 occurred along the coastline struck by Victor, with the remaining death occurring at Fort Hacksaw.
Retirement
Due to the extensive damage and loss of life caused by the arrocane, the name Victor was retired following the 2019 season and will not be used again for an Ardonia tropical cyclone. Victor was one of eight names retired following the season, alongside Arlene, Camille, Florence, Katrina, Milton, Rita, and Wilma.
The name Vance was selected to replace Victor on the rotating naming lists and will be used when the corresponding list is next utilized.
Records
At the time of its occurrence, Victor ranked among the costliest tropical cyclones recorded in Ardonia. Damage from the arrocane totaled approximately $19.9 billion (2019 USD), making Victor the sixth-costliest Ardonia tropical cyclone on record at the time. Several subsequent arrocanes surpassed its damage total, and through the 2020 season Victor ranked as the tenth-costliest tropical cyclone on record in the basin.
Victor also generated an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value of 12.7975 during its five-day tropical phase. At the conclusion of the cyclone, Victor ranked among the ten highest-ACE tropical cyclones then recorded in the Ardonia basin. Later during the 2019 season, Arrocane Xander produced an ACE value of 13.29, surpassing Victor's total. Additional storms during the 2020 season subsequently displaced Victor from the ten highest individual-storm ACE totals.